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Yesterday, the RBA held rates steady, but Governor Bullock delivered a hawkish-leaning message, lifting rate-hike odds into early 2026.
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AUDUSD tested multi-day resistance near 0.6648–0.6654, but sellers repeatedly capped gains.
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The rising 100-hour moving average at 0.6632 remains the key near-term support, repeatedly attracting dip buyers.
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Range remains tight, with buyers and sellers battling between well-defined levels as traders wait for a momentum breakout.
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A break below 0.6632 or above 0.6654 will determine the next directional push
Yesterday the RBA held rates steady but leaned to more hawkish
The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged yesterday, as widely expected. However, the tone from Governor Bullock surprised markets by leaning more hawkish than anticipated. She reiterated that the RBA remains prepared to hike again if inflation fails to moderate, and with the next policy meeting not until February—after the Bank’s summer break—markets are increasingly pricing the risk of a February or early-2026 hike.
The signal was clear: the RBA is not declaring victory on inflation, and the window for another tightening move is still open.
AUDUSD Reaction: Breakout, Failure, and Return to Support
In response to the hawkish tilt, AUDUSD initially pushed higher, rising above prior swing highs from Friday, Monday, and early Tuesday at 0.66488, and extending to 0.6654. But after failing to break through that ceiling, the pair quickly rotated back lower.
During early Asia-Pacific trading today, the pullback reached the rising 100-hour moving average, where buyers stepped in and defended support, pushing the pair back above 0.6648 and retesting the 0.6654 high. Once again, sellers prevailed, sending the price lower.
This repetitive pattern underscores the power of the current range structure.
Technical Battle Zone: Resistance vs. Support
The price action has become highly technical, with traders respecting clear, well-defined levels:
Resistance Zone:
0.6648 – 0.6654
This level has capped rallies for four consecutive trading days, signaling strong selling interest and profit-taking on each test.
Support Zone:
Rising 100-hour moving average (currently 0.6632)
Buyers continue to lean aggressively on this dynamic trend support.
The pair is essentially oscillating between these two areas, building energy for a larger breakout.
What Traders Should Watch Next
Bearish Scenario
If sellers finally push the price below the 100-hour moving average, and the pair stays below it, momentum could accelerate toward the next key downside target:
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200-hour moving average near 0.6598
A break of 0.6632 could shift the short-term bias back toward the downside.
Bullish Scenario
If the 100-hour moving average holds once again as support:
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Buyers will likely make another run at 0.6648–0.6654,
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And a clean break above this ceiling would signal renewed upside momentum, opening the path to new weekly highs.
Bottom Line
AUDUSD is caught in a tight, technically clean battleground. The RBA’s hawkish tilt provides fundamental support, but resistance overhead remains stubborn
