The AUDUSD is trading near its session lows, but the day’s range is only 34 pips — a sign of restrained price action ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision in the new trading day. The RBA is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps to 3.60% at 12:30 AM ET, following a February cut from 4.35% to 4.10% and a second cut in May to 3.85%. Last month, the central bank surprised by holding rates steady, signaling that timing rather than direction was the priority.
Market expectations are firmly in place for this move — a Reuters poll showed unanimous agreement for a cut, with most economists also expecting one more reduction before year-end. Softer inflation and labor market data are helping pave the way. CPI has eased toward the lower bound of the RBA’s 2–3% target, with Q2 headline inflation falling to 2.1% y/y, its lowest since March 2021 and below the 2.2% forecast. June jobs growth added just 2,000 jobs versus expectations of around 20,000, marking the weakest gain since October 2024, while unemployment ticked up to 4.3% from 4.1%.
Technically, the pair is holding just under its 200-bar MA (0.6528) and 100-bar MA (0.6513) on the 4-hour chart. These averages sit above the midpoint of the broad range in place since April 23, which spans from the low at 0.63546 to the high at 0.6625 (midpoint 0.6489). Today’s low of 0.6502 leaves price roughly 13 pips above that midpoint. Staying below the 100-bar MA favors sellers, while a move back above the 200-bar MA would hand the advantage to buyers.
On the downside, a break below the 0.6489 midpoint would expose a swing area near 0.64519, the 100-day MA at 0.64375, and the 200-day MA at 0.6389. Given weaker domestic data and the anticipated rate cut, the fundamental backdrop leans bearish for AUDUSD — but with U.S. rate expectations also shifting lower, the impact may be muted
