The AUDUSD started the week on a strong note, breaking above recent resistance to post a new high for 2025 on Monday. However, that bullish breakout proved short-lived. Price quickly reversed lower, falling back below the key swing area between 0.6493 and 0.6500 (see red numbered circles), and momentum accelerated as the pair broke below the 100-hour moving average (blue line).
Since then, sellers have remained in control. Attempts to correct higher on Tuesday and Thursday were capped at the 100-hour MA, reinforcing its role as a strong dynamic resistance. The inability to push back above this level keeps the bearish bias intact.
To the downside, the area around 0.6406 has emerged as a firm support zone, holding multiple tests dating back to last Thursday and Friday, as well as during trade yesterday and again today. The repeated bounces from this area suggest that buyers are defending the level, setting up a clear floor.
Key levels to watch:
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Support:
• Key floor: 0.6406
• Below that: 0.6387 to 0.6391 (swing area)Resistance:
• 100-hour MA/200 hour/200 day MA (currently near 0.6445-48)
• Swing zone: 0.6493–0.6500
As long as price holds below the 100-hour MA, sellers remain in control, with the downside risk building on a break of 0.6406
