It’s
highly likely that more benign data will see Fed Chair Powell opening the door
for a cut in September at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
The focus now turned to the
US CPI report due tomorrow. This is already fully priced in though, so
the focus will be on forward guidance. The market is pricing at least two cuts
by year-end (including tomorrow’s one) and some chances of a third. Further
weakness in the labour market data, could give the market reasons to price in
more aggressive cuts.
AUDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that AUDUSD has been moving up steadily since the soft NFP report. We need to zoom
in to see some more details.
AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. The
buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below
it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break
lower to pile in for a bigger pullback into the 0.6485 support.
AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much else we can add here but the price is now trading near the minor
support zone around the 0.6512 level. A break below this level will likely
invalidate the bullish setup and give the sellers room to target the 0.6485
support. On Wednesday, we get the Australian Wage Price index for Q2. On
Thursday, we get the Australian employment report, the US PPI and the US
Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail
Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. Focus also on
Fedspeak, especially after the US CPI data
