The Iran–Israel flare-up—and US being drawn in the conflict over the weekend—sparked a classic risk-off open. Treasuries caught a bid, and high-beta FX bore the brunt. AUDUSD opened with a downside gap and never looked back, extending Friday’s late-session technical damage. The AUSUSD is one of the bigger movers versus the US dollar. The current price is down -1.01% on the day.
Late last week, the pair cracked the 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart (0.64616) and an up-trend line drawn from the May low. Monday’s gap accelerated momentum, sending spot through the recent swing floor at 0.6407; that level now marks near-term risk for shorts.
With sellers in control, price is homing in on the May swing base at 0.63572. A decisive break would expose the 38.2 % retrace of the April–June advance at 0.63084. Failing to find support there would invite a deeper wash toward the 0.6233/50% midpoint zone.
The path of least resistance remains lower after the break
