Australia’s national broadcaster, the ABC, will carry an interview with RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser “later this morning”.
There is no further indication re the time of this, so I guess we all just stay tuned.
As you’ll see in the screenshot, Hauser will be speaking after yesterday’s inflation data and ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on February 2 and 3. The softer outcome undershot market expectations and was largely driven by aggressive Black Friday discounting in clothing, footwear, furnishings and homewares. Prices for recreation and culture also eased as post-holiday travel demand faded.
Despite the moderation in headline inflation, core price pressures remain sticky. The trimmed mean, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred underlying gauge, rose 0.3% on the month, leaving annual core inflation at 3.2%, still above the RBA’s 2–3% target band. Housing costs rose a firm 1.1% in November, led by rents and new dwelling prices, while food and transport costs also remained elevated. Electricity prices surged nearly 20% over the year following the expiry of government rebates.
Markets took the data largely in stride. The Australian dollar briefly dipped before stabilising near USD 0.67, while bond markets ended little changed. Investors continue to price roughly a one-in-three chance that the RBA will lift rates again at its February meeting.
Economists are divided on the policy implications. Some argue the economy is operating near capacity, pointing to still-tight labour conditions and resilient wage growth. Others caution that November’s inflation relief may prove temporary once holiday discounts wash out and warn that hiking too early risks compounding a slowdown.
Recent labour-market data has added nuance to the debate, with employment falling sharply in November, the largest monthly decline since early 2025, suggesting wage-driven inflation pressures may be easing. Much now hinges on upcoming labour data and the December-quarter CPI report due later this month, which the RBA weights more heavily than the newer monthly series.
Until then, the central bank faces a delicate balancing act between easing headline inflation and stubborn domestic cost pressures.
FWIW while there are accelerating calls for an RBA rate hike on February 3 I’m tipping ‘on hold’
