A 25 bps rate cut is widely expected, with traders already fully pricing that in. The odds of a 50 bps rate cut remain at ~4%, so it will be a big dovish surprise if we do see such an outcome play out later. But in all likelihood, we should just see some dissents in calling for a 50 bps move but one question will be how many policymakers will be swayed into that decision?
Trump’s puppet Miran is one that surely dissent and we could see Bowman and Waller follow up on that. However, will there be more voices taking their side this time around? We’ll have to wait to find out.
Besides the decision, the Fed’s latest dot plots will also be under scrutiny and that is another key part to watch out for. Will they signal just two rate cuts for 2025? And what about 2026? A more dovish take here could be enough to keep markets persuaded and reaffirm the more dovish outlook that has been building in the past few weeks.
And finally, another key thing to eye is Fed chair Powell’s press conference. His communique will be pivotal in determining the kind of bias that is taking shape at the Fed now. I reckon he will stick to a similar communication as we saw in Jackson Hole. But if Powell is to put more emphasis on deteriorating labour market conditions, markets will lap that up and take it to mean that the Fed has caved once again.
Powell’s comments on inflation will also be one to be mindful of
