In 2025, the Trump administration took on the world with its trade but 2026 will be about its neighbors.
There is a sense that the trade war has stabilized and hopefully it has but the year ahead will be all about the USMCA trade agreement. Mexico and Canada represent nearly 30% of US imports and have largely avoided tariffs so far. Meanwhile, Canada and Mexico represent about 33% of US exports.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Wednesday that the Trump
administration is keeping all options on the table for the future of the trade agreement, which Trump negotiated in his first term.
It’s a big year for the agreement but there is an automatic review in 2026 and each country has the opportunity to extend it, renegotiate it or withdraw.
I strongly suspect the US will aim for bilateral agreements and Greer hinted at the same today, noting structural differences in the two countries.
“The labour situation’s different. The import-export profile is
different. The rule of law is different. So it makes sense to talk about
things separately with Canada and Mexico,” he said.
Here is a key detail that’s also critical. All three countries must indicate by July 1 about their intentions for the deal but the US must provide a report to Congress 180 days before the deadline — that’s January 2 — and it must signal the administration’s intentions.
It’s possible the deal survives, or at least the important parts but Greer appeared before a U.S
