There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for USD/JPY at the 155.00 mark. Sellers tried to make a play once again yesterday in trying for a firm break below the figure level but ultimately failed as the daily close held at 155.05. So,
Major indices in the US had a mixed showing yesterday, mostly keeping little changed. Tech shares squeezed out slight gains but it wasn’t all too convincing of a more positive undertone even if European equities also managed to grind higher yesterday. At the balance, investors seem a bit nervous still in trying to manage the
It’s been a bit of a running theme to start the new month, hasn’t it? That being firms expecting further dollar weakness in December. Credit Agricole is the latest to pile in on the greenback in arguing that EUR/USD is “looking undervalued according to our FAST FX model”. Adding that the pair has yet to
The Reserve Bank of India cut its repo rate by 25bps on Friday, delivering the widely expected move as record-low retail inflation and a benign price outlook gave policymakers space to extend support for growth. Officials left the door open for further easing, with markets viewing another 25bp cut as possible if inflation stays contained
The Bank of Japan is said to be leaning toward a rate hike at its December meeting, while keeping the option open for further tightening, according to a Bloomberg report citing people familiar with internal discussions. Policymakers will continue monitoring incoming economic data and market conditions right up to the final decision. The headline immediately
The People’s Bank of China appears to be pushing back against market expectations for the yuan to strengthen beyond the 7.00 psychological level, signalling that authorities are now more comfortable with stability than further appreciation. After weeks of guiding the currency stronger, the PBOC abruptly shifted tone: Thursday’s USD/CNY fixing widened to a +150-pip adjustment
USD/INR opened slightly lower on Friday at 89.84, easing from Thursday’s record high of 90.42 as traders position ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s policy decision. Market chatter suggests that if the RBI cuts rates, the pair could retest the 90 handle, with policymakers’ comments on the rupee’s recent weakness seen as the key
Shares of Moore Threads, the Beijing-based GPU designer dubbed “China’s Nvidia”, surged more than 400% on their Shanghai debut after the company raised $1.1 billion in its IPO. The stock jumped to 584.98 yuan, more than five times its offer price of 114.28 yuan, underscoring intense investor appetite for domestic AI chipmakers as U.S. export
PM Sanae Takaichi is attempting to calm markets after unveiling a $137bn stimulus plan that raised concerns about fiscal sustainability. Japan faces rising long-end bond yields, a weak yen, and doubts about who will absorb sharply increasing JGB supply. I’ve summarised a long piece via Reuters. And also taken issue with a key conclusion (see
The scramble for copper assets is being driven by a powerful demand outlook for a metal that already underpins construction, transport and electronics—and is now becoming essential to electrification and the soaring power needs of AI data centres. Info collated in a Forbes piece, more here (may be gated). Copper has surged 30% this year
SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son is finalising plans with the White House and the U.S. Commerce Department for a sweeping industrial project that could channel hundreds of billions of dollars into building Trump-branded technology manufacturing parks across the United States, according to people familiar with the talks. The Wall Street Journal (gated) has the info. The
A Reuters opinion piece is bullish gold. It’s a long and detailed piece, I’ve summarised below: Gold’s Surge: Bubble or Paradigm Shift? Gold is up more than 60% this year — its strongest gain in nearly 50 years — raising the question of bubble vs. structural repricing. Inflation-adjusted, gold is at its most expensive ever,
India’s equity benchmarks are poised to open higher on Friday as investors await the Reserve Bank of India’s policy decision, with markets split on whether strong GDP growth and a weakening rupee argue against a widely expected rate cut. Nifty futures were trading higher than Thursday’s close. The RBI decision, due at 0400 GMT/ 2300
Japan’s household spending fell at its fastest pace in nearly two years in October, raising fresh concerns about the resilience of consumer demand just as the Bank of Japan prepares for a potential rate hike this month. Month-on-month spending slumped 3.5%, versus forecasts for a modest gain. Officials said weakness was concentrated in food, leisure
India’s central bank is allowing the rupee to weaken as deteriorating external conditions strain the currency, according to Reuters sources familiar with the Reserve Bank of India’s thinking. A key takeaway from the Reuters reports is: “It doesn’t make sense to spend reserves when fundamentally everything is against the currency,” one of the sources said,
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline while signalling continued coordination with the Bank of Japan ahead of its pivotal December policy meeting. Katayama said interest rates are shaped by “various factors” and stressed that the government will closely monitor market developments, pursue appropriate debt-management policies, and craft budgets with
People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate
The Reserve Bank of Australia is unanimously expected to keep the cash rate at 3.60% on 9 December according to the latest Reuters poll: all 38 economists forecasting no move; survey also marks a notable shift in the outlook: the median now expects rates to remain unchanged through 2026, compared with expectations for cuts as
A rise in Treasury yields is the dominant feature in markets today. That’s helped to lift the US dollar for its first gain in a week and is weighing on stocks. The S&P 500 is near a session low, down 18 points to 6832. There are conflicting signals on deficit priorities in Washington. Trump has
The Freddie Mac says that the 30 year average mortgage rate fell to 6.19% from 6.23% last week. The recent cycle lows going back to October 2022 is at 6.09%
The EURUSD has been choppy today, moving up and down within a relatively contained range. In that process, the pair once again pushed above the top of a key swing area at 1.16676. It did the same thing yesterday—breaking above the level—but in both cases, the upside momentum quickly faded. Each break higher stalled, inviting
European equity markets closed with gains of 0.3-0.9% gains today. The winner once again was Spain’s IBEX, which has been a darling this year. It’s up 44% YTD after adding nearly 1% today. It started the year strong, took a dip at Liberation Day to wipe out the gains and has been steadily rising since.
The Atlanta FedGDPNow growth is referred Q3 dipped to 3.8% from 3.9% previously. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent percent on December 4, down from 3.9 percent on December 1. After recent releases from the US
The AUDUSD has been trending steadily higher over the past few weeks, with buyers showing a consistent appetite on dips and pushing the pair through a series of technical layers. The rally began from a lower swing area between 0.6407 and 0.6424, and has now extended all the way up toward a major upper swing
The proliferation of the GDPNow report has turned into a real test of economists. It’s a semi-useful indicator but really only in the couple weeks before the advance US release, when much of the data has been released. Instead, people quote it throughout the quarter at times when it’s based on vague assumptions and models
In October 2021, Mark Zuckerberg went all-in on the metaverse. He had a vision of people existing in virtual worlds and he was going to be the one to make it happen. He was so committed that he changed the name of the corporate company from Facebook to Meta Platforms, and his stock ticker to
That level has been the logical upside target as momentum continued to build. Today, the market finally sniffed that extension level, but the first test attracted early sellers. That initial hesitation became more meaningful as the session unfolded, and over the last 10 hour or so the price has seen a steady, orderly decline. In
The US stock market today presents a mixed picture, as distinct trends emerge across various sectors. Notably, Meta leads with a robust surge, while semiconductor stocks falter, showcasing the evolving dynamics in the technology sector. 📊 Sector Overview Technology Sector: While some technology stocks are holding firm, semiconductors are struggling. Nvidia (NVDA) rises modestly by
The USDCAD pushed higher in early trading after the release of U.S. initial jobless claims, which showed a sharper-than-expected decline. Claims fell to 191K, well below the 220K expected. While the report covers the Thanksgiving week—a period often distorted by seasonal factors—the broader takeaway is that the U.S. labor market continues to reflect a low-hire,
Limassol, Cyprus – November 2025, Global CFD broker easyMarkets reported a rise in precious metals trading in Q3 2025 as overall market volatility eased to its lowest level in over a year, signaling a shift toward disciplined, short-term trading strategies among retail clients. According to the company’s Q3 2025 Market Recap, gold and silver trading
The USD is starting the North American session on the defensive against the JPY, trading lower by roughly 0.40%. Early trading has seen the pair press against—and attempt to move and stay below—the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the mid-October low, a key technical level that comes in near 154.625. A sustained break below
December 30, 2024 at 02:13PM The GBPUSD moved higher into the US open, but has since reversed lower on risk-off flows (?). Stock in the US are getting hammered in pre-market trading. Admittedly, the declines are not being pushed by any news, except Friday was soft and today, the selling is continuing. Looking at the GBPUSD, the price moved up and stalled at
December 26, 2024 at 03:26PM While UK traders celebrate Boxing Day, the GBP/USD is under pressure, falling to new session lows and extending its decline further away from the downward-sloping 100-hour moving average. The pair opened the post-Christmas trading day just below the 100-hour moving average, currently at 1.25365, and remained below it during the Asian Pacific session. As the day progressed into
December 24, 2024 at 09:35AM For the longest of time now, the pair has been caught within a 1,000 pips range over the last eight years. And that’s just the extremes in certain years. Most of the time, the pair has nestled within a much tighter range during this period. But with the over 4% decline this year, there is a chance for
December 23, 2024 at 11:30PM UBS has reiterated its recommendation for investors to capitalize on further dollar strength by diversifying into other currencies. Despite recent gains in the US dollar, driven by shifting expectations for Federal Reserve and US government policy, the bank maintains that the dollar remains overvalued. While UBS does not anticipate a sharp decline in the greenback in the near
December 23, 2024 at 03:37PM The GBP/USD rallied on Friday after sharp declines on Thursday, driven by the BOE’s dovish rate decision, where three members voted for a rate cut. The downward move pushed the pair below the November low of 1.24865, reaching 1.24739—the lowest level since May. However, momentum stalled, and the pair rebounded on Friday, supported by weaker-than-expected US PCE data.
December 20, 2024 at 10:06AM Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost from the FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. Overall, apart from some slight tweaks, the Fed matched the market’s pricing. Nonetheless, the market reacted in a big way pushing Treasury yields higher and giving the USD a tailwind. The data is what really matters now
March 18, 2025 at 04:31PM Putin Envoy Dmitriev is on the wires saying: Under Pres. Putin and Pres. Trump, the world has become a much safer place today According to MSNBC, the call between Russia’s Putin and US Pres. Trump is now over after about 1 1/2 hours. US stocks have seen a modest bounce.
March 18, 2025 at 04:12PM Gold continues its bullish momentum, surging $30.60 (1.02%) to $3,031.76, marking a new all-time high. The precious metal is now up 15.57% in 2025, following a 27.2% rally in 2024. With record highs being set, traders must ask: “What could derail this rally, even in the short term?” Until a
March 18, 2025 at 03:51PM The markets remain on edge as Trump/Putin call continues. At stake is: No ceasefire A temporary 30-day ceasefire Something more or less. Russia is expected to outline conditions, including a halt to Western weapon shipments to Ukraine. They also would not want to see Ukraine a part of NATO. Trump
March 18, 2025 at 03:28PM Last week, the NZDUSD found support twice at its 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, giving buyers the confidence to push higher. Yesterday, the pair broke above its 100-day moving average at 0.57464, accelerating the upside move. This breakout cleared key resistance levels, including the February 21 high at
March 18, 2025 at 02:54PM The Bundestag is currently voting on Chancellor Merz’s fiscal reform, with results …well it has passed. The vote was 513 in favor and 207 against. The vote needed 489 votes to pass constitutional reform. The reform debt policies would allow higher defense spending and create a €500 billion ($548 billion)
March 18, 2025 at 02:46PM Tech tremors: Nasdaq slips as major players falter Today’s market movements tell a story of significant shifts, particularly in the tech-heavy Nasdaq, where major technology stocks are grappling with red arrows across the board. Let’s delve deeper into these sector-specific performances, investor sentiments, and strategic moves for traders navigating this
March 18, 2025 at 02:37PM The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 improved to -1.8% from -2.1% previously: In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.8 percent on March 18, up from -2.1 percent on March 17. After
March 18, 2025 at 02:29PM A lot is going on technically in the USDCHF. The corrective high reached at the end of last week stalled against the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the March 3 high to the March low. That level came in at 0.88637. Staying below that 38.2% retracement The sellers
March 18, 2025 at 02:05PM It’s an increasingly-rough day in the US stock market as the optimism from Friday/Monday is eroded. A hint came late yesterday as stocks slumped into the close and now the pain is extending. The S&P 500 is down 1.1% and the Nasdaq down 1.9%. Leading the way lower are the
March 18, 2025 at 01:30PM US officials have recently weighed whether to simplify the task of devising new tariff rates for hundreds of US trading partners by instead sorting nations into one of three tariff tiers, according to sources cited by the WSJ. Trump has repeatedly said reciprocal tariffs would mean “what they charge us,
March 18, 2025 at 01:25PM GBPUSD Technical Outlook GBPUSD has pulled back to retest its 100-hour moving average at 1.29546, briefly dipping to 1.2951 before bouncing higher. Buyers stepped in at this key level, keeping the short-term bullish bias intact. However, a move below the 100-hour MA, followed by a break of the 200-hour MA
March 18, 2025 at 01:16PM Prior was +0.5% (revised to +0.3%) Ex cars/parts +0.4% vs +0.6% prior Capacity utilization 78.2% vs 77.8% expected Manufacturing output +0.9% vs +0.3% expected This is a tough one to game out because factories could be front-running tariffs. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
March 18, 2025 at 01:08PM The USDCAD is lower and testing the lower extreme of what has been a well-defined consolidation range between 1.4268 and 1.4471, as highlighted by the Red Box on the chart above. Price action has repeatedly tested the upper and lower bounds of this range, failing to sustain any meaningful breakouts
March 18, 2025 at 01:02PM Fitch is out with a note on global growth: The new US administration has started a global trade war that will reduce US and world growth Cuts 2025 US GDP growth forecast to 1.7% from 2.1% Cuts 2026 US GDP growth forecast to 1.5% from 1.7% Mexico and Canada will
March 18, 2025 at 12:39PM Prior was +0.3% (revised to +0.4%) Import prices y/y +2.0% vs +1.6% expected (prior 1.9% revised to 1.8%) Export prices m/m +0.1% -0.2% expected There are some inflation impulses here. This report is often ignored because imports/exports are a small part of the US consumption basket but with tariffs now
March 18, 2025 at 12:31PM Prior month 1.9% CPI m/m +1.1% versus +0.6% expected. Prior month +0.1% Core CPI m/m +0.7% versus +0.4% last month CPI y/y +2.6% versus 2.2% estimate Core CPI y/y 2.7% versus 2.1% last month CPI Median y/y 2.9% versus 2.9% estimate. Last month 2.6% revised from 2.4% CPI Trim 2.9%
March 18, 2025 at 12:30PM Prior month 1.366M revised to 1.350M Housing starts vs 1.501m vs 1.380M estimate. Prior month building permits 1.483M Building permits 1.456M vs 1.453M estimate Details from the US Census Building Permits: Total: 1.456 million (↓ 1.2% from January, ↓ 6.8% from Feb 2024) Single-family: 992,000 (↓ 0.2% from January) Multi-family
March 18, 2025 at 11:13AM All options are available on China investments. If necessary, we will block an outbound investment. On April 2, each country will get a tariff number. For some countries, the April 2 tariff may be low. Reciprocal tariffs won’t be automatic 25% plus 25%. Tariffs could be stacked on top of
March 18, 2025 at 11:12AM FXiBot, the latest innovation in forex automation, introduces a precision-focused strategy designed to master GBP/USD trading with a disciplined, single-position approach. Where overtrading fuels risk and erratic outcomes, this system does the opposite, taking a measured, calculated approach with strategic intent. Many trading bots rely on high-frequency execution, flooding the
March 18, 2025 at 10:50AM ForexVIM, an advanced AI-powered trading tool, has been launched to enhance gold price analysis with smart pattern recognition. Designed to improve trade execution, the system identifies recurring price formations and market structures, enabling traders to make data-driven decisions with greater precision. Gold’s price action is influenced by a complex network
March 18, 2025 at 10:20AM Global oil market is balanced now. Russia’s oil processing in 2025 will be higher than in 2024. OPEC+ oil output rise by 100K bpd in April will not affect oil market. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
March 18, 2025 at 10:00AM Prior -88.5 Outlook 51.6 vs 50.3 expected Prior 26.0 The current conditions index disappointed a bit but the expectations index jumped to a new cycle high amid the German fiscal boost and ongoing ECB monetary easing. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
March 18, 2025 at 09:38AM But it will only show up over the medium-term In the near-term, US tariffs and increased uncertainty already having adverse economic effects Just some token remarks by Rehn. As a side note, he was reappointed as Bank of Finland governor last week and will stay in charge of the central
March 18, 2025 at 09:05AM Fundamental Overview The USD continues to remain under pressure against most major currencies despite higher Core PCE estimates following the US CPI and PPI reports, and a better-than-expected Retail Sales data yesterday. The market pricing for the Fed went from expecting more than 80 bps of easing by year-end at
March 18, 2025 at 09:04AM Growth in the euro area economy is picking up gradually The headline remark casts doubt on a move in April. That as if they were convinced of their resolve, they will say push the narrative that disinflation is still progressing instead. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
March 18, 2025 at 09:02AM The buying started as we got into the early stages of European trade and that’s helping with the overall market mood. In Europe, the DAX is leading the charge and is up 1% on the day now with the CAC 40 up 0.5%. Are dip buyers poised to seize back
March 18, 2025 at 08:27AM What’s there left to say with gold at this point. It’s been a hugely impressive run higher to start the year and we’re now looking to solidify a firm break above $3,000 in establishing the next leg higher. Amid a global trade war and Trump-induced uncertainty, gold is shining alongside
March 18, 2025 at 08:08AM Eurostoxx +0.3% Germany DAX +0.5% France CAC 40 +0.2% UK FTSE +0.2% Spain IBEX +0.2% Italy FTSE MIB +0.4% German stocks are leading the charge ahead of the vote on the debt package in parliament later. US futures are down on the day but at least off earlier lows, with
March 18, 2025 at 07:19AM In the European session, we have the German ZEW which is expected to jump to 50.3 vs 26.0 prior amid the expectations of a boost from the fiscal stimulus. In the American session, the main highlight will be the Canadian CPI report but we will also get a few notable
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December 30, 2024 at 02:13PM The GBPUSD moved higher into the US open, but has since reversed lower on risk-off flows (?). Stock in the US are getting hammered in pre-market trading. Admittedly, the declines are not being pushed by any news, except Friday was soft and today, the selling is continuing. Looking at the GBPUSD, the price moved up and stalled at
