End of Day Market Summary: Tech Sector Weighs on Wall Street US stocks closed lower to end the trading week, as a sharp selloff in the technology sector dragged down the broader market. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to secure a gain for the week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq succumbed to profit-taking
In an exclusive interview with The Wall Street Journal, President Trump revealed he is leaning toward nominating either former Fed governor Kevin Warsh or National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Trump emphasized that his choice must be willing to lower interest rates and consult with him on monetary policy.
A Week of Two Halves The USDJPY has settled the North American session marginally higher on the day, capping off a week defined by up-and-down volatility. The Lows: Sellers controlled the early action, pushing the price to a weekly low of 154.89 during Monday’s session. The Highs: Buyers fought back mid-week, driving the pair to
Weekly Price Action Crude oil futures settled the week on a soft note, closing at $57.44, down $0.16 or -0.28% for the day. For the week, the commodity saw significant selling pressure: Weekly Change: Down -4.54%, a decline of $3.12. The Highs: The week’s high was reached on Monday at $60.30. The Lows: Sellers pushed
Bullish Momentum Extends for a Third Week The AUDUSD moved higher for the third consecutive week, extending to its highest level since September 17th. This upside momentum began after the pair bottomed on November 21 near the high of a swing area between 0.6407 and 0.6424. During this run, the pair successfully cleared a series
A Strong 3-Week Recovery The NZDUSD is up for the third week in a row after bottoming on November 21 at 0.55758. The move to the upside has taken the pair to a high this week of 0.5830, representing a significant recovery over the last 16 trading days: Price Change: +254 pips Percentage Change: +4.56%
With the Dow industrial average down -10.69%, the S&P down -1.36% and the NASDAQ index down -2.0%, the European declines today are a modest. The UK’s FTSE 100 led the declines, likely weighed down by earlier reports that the UK economy unexpectedly shrank in October. A snapshot of the closing levels shows the: European Market
SNB Policy: Rates on Hold, “Expansive” Stance Remains The Swiss National Bank (SNB) kept rates unchanged earlier this week at 0.0%. Following the decision, comments from SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel—combined with technical resistance—helped push the USDCHF lower (strengthening the CHF). Key Takeaways from Chairman Schlegel: Policy Stance: Schlegel stressed that the current stance remains “expansive”
Here is a snapshot of the US stock market today, Friday, December 12, 2025, highlighting the “Tech Wreck” narrative driving the major declines you are seeing. Market Summary: The Great Rotation Intensifies The divergence in the market has widened significantly today. Investors are aggressively rotating out of high-flying technology and AI stocks—sparked by disappointments from
At the time of analysis, the S&P 500 futures are trading near 6,858, which is an important reference point for both short term traders and swing focused investors. This level represents yesterday’s value area low, and it is also a naked level, meaning it has not been fully tested since it was formed. These areas
The Great Rotation Continues The rotation in the US stock market is gaining momentum today, creating a tale of two markets. On one side, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading higher, finding support from major industrial and cyclical stocks that are attracting fresh capital. On the other side, the big technology heavyweights that have
The USDCAD saw a slew of economic data come out earlier today, painting a stronger-than-expected picture for the Canadian economy. Building permits for October were much stronger than expectations, surging 14.9% versus the forecasted -0.9% decline. Additionally, Capacity Utilization for the 3rd quarter came in at 78.5% (versus 77.6% revised from the last quarter), and
The stock market today paints a diverse picture, with tech giants and semiconductor players experiencing contrasting fates. While stalwart technology names remain largely stable, the semiconductor sector displays a mixed performance, suggesting a fluctuating narrative within a crucial industry. 🔍 Sector Overview Technology & Software: Leading tech stock Microsoft (MSFT) modestly declined by 0.30%, maintaining
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack is her perspective this morning following Wednesday’s split FOMC decision. While the committee voted to lower rates by 25 basis points, the decision was far from unanimous, highlighting a deepening divide among policymakers regarding the path forward for inflation and the labor market. The Split Decision: A Rare 9-to-3 Vote
Fed’s Goolsbee is speaking on CNBC and further explaining his decision to keep rates unchanged at the reason FOMC rate decision where the Fed decided to cut rates by 25 basis points.. He was 1 of 2 dissenters who voted for no change in policy. Fed’s Miran voted for a larger 50 basis point cut
Jeffrey Schmid (Kansas City Fed President) Summary: Schmid, another dissenter, takes a hawkish stance driven by persistent inflation concerns. He views the economy as having momentum and the job market as balanced, which contrasts with the idea that employment is at risk
Currency and Bond Market Overview The US Dollar is trading marginally higher today, stabilizing after two days of declines. Treasury yields have also ticked up to start the North American session, with the 10-year yield rising 3.7 basis points, retracing a similar fall from last week. The Japanese Yen and Central Bank Watch USD/JPY: The
It is two days after the FOMC rate decision where the voting members decided by a 9-3 vote to cut rates by 25 basis points with 2 voting to keep rates unchanged and 1 (Miran) voted for a 50 basis point cut. Miran. Fed’s Goolsbee and Paulson are out with comments as to their choices
KEY POINTS: India’s inflation rate Y/Y increased to 0.71% vs 0.70% expected in November The prior release saw inflation falling to a record low of 0.25% The RBI’s inflation target is 4% with a +/-2% tolerance band Inflation remains far below the central bank’s target INFLATION REPORT: India’s inflation rate increased to 0.71% in November
Rate cuts by year-end Fed 2026: 54 bps (73% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE 2026: 61 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by year-end BoC 2026: 25 bps (93% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB 2026: 10 bps (100% probability of no
The rally was mostly technical as the breakout triggered stops and saw more buyers piling in to target new highs. Looking ahead, the main risk events for gold will be the NFP and CPI reports next week. Strong data should weigh on the precious metal and trigger a correction, while weak figures will likely give
KEY POINTS: The Fed delivered on expectations, but Powell sounded dovish US-India trade talks concluded on a positive note, although there wasn’t any major breakthrough India’s Chief Economic Adviser sees a deal now closer than ever and could be reached by March Nifty 50 rises back above the key 25,900 level, shifting the short-term bias
KEY POINTS: UK GDP fell by 0.1% in the three months to October 2025 The 0.1% fall in the three months to October 2025 was the first three monthly fall in real GDP since December 2023 GDP in October is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% British Pound weakened following the GDP release GDP REPORT:
In the European session, the main highlight will be the UK GDP, although we will also get the final inflation readings for Germany, France and Spain. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central banks. The UK October GDP is expected at +0.1% vs -0.1% prior, while the Y/Y estimate
As prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi see exploded volumes on everything from Fed rates to geopolitical conflicts, a recent incident involving the Ukraine war highlights a critical vulnerability in the system. On November 15, a niche market on Polymarket regarding the Russian advance on the town of Myrnohrad exposed the pitfalls of relying on
The US dollar is down on most fronts this year but it came after years of gains. The team at Scotiabank says don’t get too comfortable with USD longs as the worst is yet to come. In their Focus On 2026 outlook, Scotia’s Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret are sticking to their guns: they see
It’s a strong day for Japanese stocks as they ratchet higher to close out the week. The Nikkei 225 is up 1.5% and threatening the December high. It’s a quick bounce back after the risk rout in Asia yesterday. The market has been trading sideways for the past six weeks after a sharp rise in
Leaked internal benchmarks for GPT-5.2 “Thinking” have been posted by Sam Altman, and quite frankly, the numbers are ridiculous. We aren’t talking about incremental gains here. For some reference: AIME 2025: 100.0%. It solved it. This is a big math test and it means that competition math is effectively “completed” for this model. ARC-AGI-2: This
When Mark Carney pulled off an improbable election win this year, he didn’t earn a majority in parliament. That means his government could fall at any time, but he came very close. The Liberals won 169 seats, just three short of a 172 seat majority. In early November, Conservative MP Chris d’Entremont crossed the floor
Will make a signing related to AI Forget trying to get approval for 50 different states Sacks: Order gives tools to push back on most onerous state regulations We are taking steps for a single national standard on AI The idea of dominance is that AI will be iterative, so the latest generation of AI
The US is clearly trying to provoke some kind of conflict, if not a war. Trump wants regime change in Venezuela for some reason. That said, Trump likes to make threats so he could be trying to bluff Maduro into leaving the country. Yesterday, the US seized an oil tanker carrying Venezuelan crude. On Ukraine,
After the fireworks from the Australian jobs report yesterday, the schedule for the Friday Asian session (Thursday evening US time) is looking decidedly thin. We are scraping the bottom of the barrel for data, so don’t expect too many idiosyncratic catalysts to drive the majors. The action kicks off early in the session at 02:00
The major U.S. equity indices finished the session mixed, reflecting a sharp divergence between traditional blue-chip strength and renewed anxiety in high-growth technology names. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both closed at fresh record highs, supported by strength in industrials, financials, and defensive sectors. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite ended the
This is something of a formality but the Federal Reserve board of governors has input on the regional Presidents. In any case, there was unanimous approval of all of them for five year terms. Now this could have been more contentions if Trump was able to stack the governors, who then could have stacked the
The price of silver is sprinting to yet another record, surging approximately $2.00 (3.40%) on the day. This latest move caps a historic run for the metal, which is now up over 120% year-to-date. Silver’s explosive move to over $64.00 per ounce in 2025 is being driven by a “perfect storm” of five fundamental factors:
Trump news today: Administration sanctions Maduro’s nephews and 6 ships carrying Venezuelan oil Bessent commented that Maduro group in criminal associations are flooding the US with drugs that is poisoning the American people Maduro and cronies have a choice: stop the drug trafficking stop the corruption, stop the dictatorship and leave the country. ON Ukraine:
The US treasury has auctioned off $22Bof 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.773% The WI (when-issued) level at the time of the auction was 4.774% The results of a US Treasury auction act as a real-time “report card” on the market’s appetite for US government debt. Because US Treasuries are the risk-free
Freddie Mac is reporting that the 30 year fixed-rate mortgage average rate rose to 6.22% from 6.19% in the prior week. The recent cycle lows going back to October 2022 is at 6.09%. Current Market Snapshot The housing market continues to navigate a complex environment of fluctuating rates and sticky prices. While the Federal Reserve
Key Takeaways: GDPNow Upgrade: The Atlanta Fed raised its Q3 2025 GDP estimate to 3.6% (up from 3.5%). Trade to the Rescue: A surge in net exports offset weaker government spending and private investment numbers. Fed Optimism: Federal Reserve officials revised their 2026 GDP growth projections sharply higher to 2.3%. Productivity Boom: Chair Powell points
December 30, 2024 at 02:13PM The GBPUSD moved higher into the US open, but has since reversed lower on risk-off flows (?). Stock in the US are getting hammered in pre-market trading. Admittedly, the declines are not being pushed by any news, except Friday was soft and today, the selling is continuing. Looking at the GBPUSD, the price moved up and stalled at
December 26, 2024 at 03:26PM While UK traders celebrate Boxing Day, the GBP/USD is under pressure, falling to new session lows and extending its decline further away from the downward-sloping 100-hour moving average. The pair opened the post-Christmas trading day just below the 100-hour moving average, currently at 1.25365, and remained below it during the Asian Pacific session. As the day progressed into
December 24, 2024 at 09:35AM For the longest of time now, the pair has been caught within a 1,000 pips range over the last eight years. And that’s just the extremes in certain years. Most of the time, the pair has nestled within a much tighter range during this period. But with the over 4% decline this year, there is a chance for
December 23, 2024 at 11:30PM UBS has reiterated its recommendation for investors to capitalize on further dollar strength by diversifying into other currencies. Despite recent gains in the US dollar, driven by shifting expectations for Federal Reserve and US government policy, the bank maintains that the dollar remains overvalued. While UBS does not anticipate a sharp decline in the greenback in the near
December 23, 2024 at 03:37PM The GBP/USD rallied on Friday after sharp declines on Thursday, driven by the BOE’s dovish rate decision, where three members voted for a rate cut. The downward move pushed the pair below the November low of 1.24865, reaching 1.24739—the lowest level since May. However, momentum stalled, and the pair rebounded on Friday, supported by weaker-than-expected US PCE data.
December 20, 2024 at 10:06AM Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost from the FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. Overall, apart from some slight tweaks, the Fed matched the market’s pricing. Nonetheless, the market reacted in a big way pushing Treasury yields higher and giving the USD a tailwind. The data is what really matters now
March 18, 2025 at 04:31PM Putin Envoy Dmitriev is on the wires saying: Under Pres. Putin and Pres. Trump, the world has become a much safer place today According to MSNBC, the call between Russia’s Putin and US Pres. Trump is now over after about 1 1/2 hours. US stocks have seen a modest bounce.
March 18, 2025 at 04:12PM Gold continues its bullish momentum, surging $30.60 (1.02%) to $3,031.76, marking a new all-time high. The precious metal is now up 15.57% in 2025, following a 27.2% rally in 2024. With record highs being set, traders must ask: “What could derail this rally, even in the short term?” Until a
March 18, 2025 at 03:51PM The markets remain on edge as Trump/Putin call continues. At stake is: No ceasefire A temporary 30-day ceasefire Something more or less. Russia is expected to outline conditions, including a halt to Western weapon shipments to Ukraine. They also would not want to see Ukraine a part of NATO. Trump
March 18, 2025 at 03:28PM Last week, the NZDUSD found support twice at its 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, giving buyers the confidence to push higher. Yesterday, the pair broke above its 100-day moving average at 0.57464, accelerating the upside move. This breakout cleared key resistance levels, including the February 21 high at
March 18, 2025 at 02:54PM The Bundestag is currently voting on Chancellor Merz’s fiscal reform, with results …well it has passed. The vote was 513 in favor and 207 against. The vote needed 489 votes to pass constitutional reform. The reform debt policies would allow higher defense spending and create a €500 billion ($548 billion)
March 18, 2025 at 02:46PM Tech tremors: Nasdaq slips as major players falter Today’s market movements tell a story of significant shifts, particularly in the tech-heavy Nasdaq, where major technology stocks are grappling with red arrows across the board. Let’s delve deeper into these sector-specific performances, investor sentiments, and strategic moves for traders navigating this
March 18, 2025 at 02:37PM The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 improved to -1.8% from -2.1% previously: In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.8 percent on March 18, up from -2.1 percent on March 17. After
March 18, 2025 at 02:29PM A lot is going on technically in the USDCHF. The corrective high reached at the end of last week stalled against the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the March 3 high to the March low. That level came in at 0.88637. Staying below that 38.2% retracement The sellers
March 18, 2025 at 02:05PM It’s an increasingly-rough day in the US stock market as the optimism from Friday/Monday is eroded. A hint came late yesterday as stocks slumped into the close and now the pain is extending. The S&P 500 is down 1.1% and the Nasdaq down 1.9%. Leading the way lower are the
March 18, 2025 at 01:30PM US officials have recently weighed whether to simplify the task of devising new tariff rates for hundreds of US trading partners by instead sorting nations into one of three tariff tiers, according to sources cited by the WSJ. Trump has repeatedly said reciprocal tariffs would mean “what they charge us,
March 18, 2025 at 01:25PM GBPUSD Technical Outlook GBPUSD has pulled back to retest its 100-hour moving average at 1.29546, briefly dipping to 1.2951 before bouncing higher. Buyers stepped in at this key level, keeping the short-term bullish bias intact. However, a move below the 100-hour MA, followed by a break of the 200-hour MA
March 18, 2025 at 01:16PM Prior was +0.5% (revised to +0.3%) Ex cars/parts +0.4% vs +0.6% prior Capacity utilization 78.2% vs 77.8% expected Manufacturing output +0.9% vs +0.3% expected This is a tough one to game out because factories could be front-running tariffs. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
March 18, 2025 at 01:08PM The USDCAD is lower and testing the lower extreme of what has been a well-defined consolidation range between 1.4268 and 1.4471, as highlighted by the Red Box on the chart above. Price action has repeatedly tested the upper and lower bounds of this range, failing to sustain any meaningful breakouts
March 18, 2025 at 01:02PM Fitch is out with a note on global growth: The new US administration has started a global trade war that will reduce US and world growth Cuts 2025 US GDP growth forecast to 1.7% from 2.1% Cuts 2026 US GDP growth forecast to 1.5% from 1.7% Mexico and Canada will
March 18, 2025 at 12:39PM Prior was +0.3% (revised to +0.4%) Import prices y/y +2.0% vs +1.6% expected (prior 1.9% revised to 1.8%) Export prices m/m +0.1% -0.2% expected There are some inflation impulses here. This report is often ignored because imports/exports are a small part of the US consumption basket but with tariffs now
March 18, 2025 at 12:31PM Prior month 1.9% CPI m/m +1.1% versus +0.6% expected. Prior month +0.1% Core CPI m/m +0.7% versus +0.4% last month CPI y/y +2.6% versus 2.2% estimate Core CPI y/y 2.7% versus 2.1% last month CPI Median y/y 2.9% versus 2.9% estimate. Last month 2.6% revised from 2.4% CPI Trim 2.9%
March 18, 2025 at 12:30PM Prior month 1.366M revised to 1.350M Housing starts vs 1.501m vs 1.380M estimate. Prior month building permits 1.483M Building permits 1.456M vs 1.453M estimate Details from the US Census Building Permits: Total: 1.456 million (↓ 1.2% from January, ↓ 6.8% from Feb 2024) Single-family: 992,000 (↓ 0.2% from January) Multi-family
March 18, 2025 at 11:13AM All options are available on China investments. If necessary, we will block an outbound investment. On April 2, each country will get a tariff number. For some countries, the April 2 tariff may be low. Reciprocal tariffs won’t be automatic 25% plus 25%. Tariffs could be stacked on top of
March 18, 2025 at 11:12AM FXiBot, the latest innovation in forex automation, introduces a precision-focused strategy designed to master GBP/USD trading with a disciplined, single-position approach. Where overtrading fuels risk and erratic outcomes, this system does the opposite, taking a measured, calculated approach with strategic intent. Many trading bots rely on high-frequency execution, flooding the
March 18, 2025 at 10:50AM ForexVIM, an advanced AI-powered trading tool, has been launched to enhance gold price analysis with smart pattern recognition. Designed to improve trade execution, the system identifies recurring price formations and market structures, enabling traders to make data-driven decisions with greater precision. Gold’s price action is influenced by a complex network
March 18, 2025 at 10:20AM Global oil market is balanced now. Russia’s oil processing in 2025 will be higher than in 2024. OPEC+ oil output rise by 100K bpd in April will not affect oil market. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
March 18, 2025 at 10:00AM Prior -88.5 Outlook 51.6 vs 50.3 expected Prior 26.0 The current conditions index disappointed a bit but the expectations index jumped to a new cycle high amid the German fiscal boost and ongoing ECB monetary easing. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
March 18, 2025 at 09:38AM But it will only show up over the medium-term In the near-term, US tariffs and increased uncertainty already having adverse economic effects Just some token remarks by Rehn. As a side note, he was reappointed as Bank of Finland governor last week and will stay in charge of the central
March 18, 2025 at 09:05AM Fundamental Overview The USD continues to remain under pressure against most major currencies despite higher Core PCE estimates following the US CPI and PPI reports, and a better-than-expected Retail Sales data yesterday. The market pricing for the Fed went from expecting more than 80 bps of easing by year-end at
March 18, 2025 at 09:04AM Growth in the euro area economy is picking up gradually The headline remark casts doubt on a move in April. That as if they were convinced of their resolve, they will say push the narrative that disinflation is still progressing instead. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
March 18, 2025 at 09:02AM The buying started as we got into the early stages of European trade and that’s helping with the overall market mood. In Europe, the DAX is leading the charge and is up 1% on the day now with the CAC 40 up 0.5%. Are dip buyers poised to seize back
March 18, 2025 at 08:27AM What’s there left to say with gold at this point. It’s been a hugely impressive run higher to start the year and we’re now looking to solidify a firm break above $3,000 in establishing the next leg higher. Amid a global trade war and Trump-induced uncertainty, gold is shining alongside
March 18, 2025 at 08:08AM Eurostoxx +0.3% Germany DAX +0.5% France CAC 40 +0.2% UK FTSE +0.2% Spain IBEX +0.2% Italy FTSE MIB +0.4% German stocks are leading the charge ahead of the vote on the debt package in parliament later. US futures are down on the day but at least off earlier lows, with
March 18, 2025 at 07:19AM In the European session, we have the German ZEW which is expected to jump to 50.3 vs 26.0 prior amid the expectations of a boost from the fiscal stimulus. In the American session, the main highlight will be the Canadian CPI report but we will also get a few notable
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December 30, 2024 at 02:13PM The GBPUSD moved higher into the US open, but has since reversed lower on risk-off flows (?). Stock in the US are getting hammered in pre-market trading. Admittedly, the declines are not being pushed by any news, except Friday was soft and today, the selling is continuing. Looking at the GBPUSD, the price moved up and stalled at
