The USD higher vs the JPY (+0.46%) and little changed vs the EUR and GBP to start the US session. The CPI data will take focus when it is released at 8:30 AM ET. The expectation is for the headline to rise by 0.3% versus 0.3% last month. The core is also expected to rise by 0.3%. Last month the court rose by 0.2%. The YoY levels are expected to come in at 2.7% for the headline and 2.7% for the core (up from 2.6%). Inflation remains a sticky. US new-home sales will be released at 10 AM with expectations of 0.720 million versus 0.800 million last month. The U.S. Treasury will auction off 30 year bonds at 1 PM.
US morning markets open under a cloud of geopolitical and earnings risk
US markets begin Tuesday’s session with energy markets in focus and bank earnings setting the tone, as investors digest the drone attacks of tankers around Black Sea and the official kickoff of the Q4 earnings season.
Overnight headlines confirmed that four oil tankers were struck near the Black Sea CPC terminal by drones. The CPC terminal is a key conduit for Kazakhstan’s crude exports into global markets, and the growing pattern of strikes has pushed Brent and WTI more than $1 higher as traders price in potential supply disruption and widening geopolitical risk.
The tanker incidents arrive as Washington continues to weigh military and covert options against Iran, keeping energy markets on edge. While no formal decision has been announced, the combination of Black Sea risks and Middle East tensions has created a clear upward bias in crude, reinforcing inflation-sensitive positioning ahead of US CPI later this week.
Earnings season kicks off — US banks in the spotlight
Today marks the official start of Q4 earnings season, with US financials leading the charge.
The focus is squarely on the health of the US consumer, loan growth, credit quality, and net interest margins as the Federal Reserve pivots toward an easier policy stance. JPMorgan and Bank of New York Mellon, have announced this morning.
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JPMorgan Chase (JPM) EPS $4.63 versus $4.97 expected (MISS), revenue $45.8 billion versus $46.11 billion expected (MISS). Shares of JPM are up marginally despite the miss. Yesterday the shares fell -1.43%.
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Bank of New York Mellon (BNY): EPS $2.02 versus $1.91 expected (BEAT). Revenues came in at $16.0 billion versus $14.72 billion expected (BEAT). Shares are trading down 1.3% in premarket trading
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Delta Air Lines (DAL): EPS $1.64 versus $1.53 expected (BEAT). Revenues $5.19 billion versus $5.14 billion expected (BEAT)
The USD is higher ahead of the key US CPI report
