TL;DR summary:
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Trump warned Iran against rebuilding weapons programs, reviving strike risk.
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Renewed Iran tensions raise the prospect of higher oil risk premiums.
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Hamas disarmament pressure adds to regional instability concerns.
Trump renews Iran strike warning as Gaza disarmament pressure raises oil risk premium
US President Donald Trump warned that Washington could back another major military strike on Iran if Tehran is found rebuilding its ballistic missile or nuclear weapons programs, while also issuing a stark ultimatum to Hamas to disarm or face severe consequences.
Speaking alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after talks at Mar-a-Lago, Trump said recent intelligence and media reports suggested Iran may be attempting to reconstitute weapons capabilities at alternative locations following a major US strike in June. He indicated Washington was closely tracking Iranian activity, adding that any renewed escalation would not be tolerated.
The comments refocus market attention on Iran’s role in regional energy stability. Iran remains a critical oil producer and a central geopolitical node near key shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz. Any renewed military action, or even heightened threats, risks tightening supply expectations, lifting risk premiums across crude markets and increasing volatility in energy-linked assets.
Iran, which fought a brief but intense conflict with Israel in June, said last week it had conducted fresh missile exercises, reinforcing concerns in Washington and Tel Aviv that tensions could flare again. While Trump reiterated openness to a negotiated nuclear arrangement, his remarks underscored that diplomacy would be contingent on clear restraint from Tehran.
Trump also turned his attention to Gaza, urging progress toward a second phase of the ceasefire agreement brokered last year. That phase would involve international peacekeeping forces and a transition away from active combat. However, Hamas has refused to disarm, and Trump accused the group of undermining the agreement while warning that Israel could resume military operations if disarmament does not occur.
For oil markets, the dual focus on Iran and Gaza keeps geopolitical risk firmly embedded in prices. Even in the absence of immediate supply disruptions, the prospect of renewed conflict involving Iran, directly or via regional spillovers, is likely to support crude prices by reinforcing a persistent Middle East risk premium into 2026
