Palladium futures had one of those sessions where the price action alone looks chaotic, but the order flow underneath tells a clearer story. Today’s move was not just a normal pullback. It behaved like a forced unwind that eventually transitioned into stabilization and early recovery, with a credible case that the session low near $1677 may hold as the day’s low.
What happened today in Palladium, in plain English
Palladium gapped up at the weekly open. Risk on, you say? Nahh… Then, a crazy move happened for Palladium.
You know how most people consider a “correction” to be apx 20% down? Well, this special metal sold off over 21% in less than 17 hours. Crazy! Palladium sold aggressively into the $1700 psychological round number, and then pushed even lower to the $1677 area. That is the type of behavior you typically see when stops get triggered in clusters and liquidity becomes thin. In those moments, the market often overshoots because bids get pulled and stops become market sells.
This matters because liquidation phases often end with a “capitulation style” bar or sequence. The trap for retail traders is that the final push down looks like maximum bearish conviction, when in reality it can be seller exhaustion.
2) Why $1700 mattered and why price went below it anyway
Round numbers like $1700 attract liquidity. In commodities, they are natural areas for:
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stop-loss clustering
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algorithmic triggers
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hedging flows
After exaggerated downside moves, it is common to see a stop hunt through the round number, followed by “dancing” around it as liquidity is harvested on both sides. That is exactly what today resembled: first the flush below, then the market shifting into a two-sided auction where the next move depends on whether sellers can regain control.
3) The hidden shift: absorption turning into initiative buying
This is the part most chart-only traders miss.
After the flush, we saw multiple bars where price action was still weak or choppy, but the internal flow improved. In simple terms:
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Sellers kept trying to press, but price stopped falling at the same rate.
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Buyers began absorbing sell pressure without immediately lifting price.
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Then buyers finally became aggressive enough to lift offers and push price higher.
This progression is important. A durable low is rarely a single candle event. It is usually a process: pressure fades, absorption appears, then initiative buying confirms. That is consistent with why $1677 is a reasonable candidate for the day’s low.
Why $1677 stands out as the daily low candidate
From an order-flow perspective, the $1677 area behaved like a “repair point” where the market stopped searching for lower prices and started rebuilding.
What supports that idea:
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The selloff into that zone showed exhaustion characteristics after an already extended downside run.
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After that low was printed, the market began to trade more two-sided rather than continuing straight down.
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The subsequent recovery showed improving buy-side participation, meaning the rebound was not purely random.
This does not guarantee the low will hold tomorrow. But for today’s session narrative, $1677 fits the profile of a liquidation low rather than just another waypoint lower.
Key levels for Palladium futures that traders are likely to care about next
Here is the practical map to watch:
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Support zone: $1677 to the high $1600s
If price loses this area decisively, the “daily low” thesis weakens and the market may continue searching lower. -
Round number pivot: $1700
Bulls typically want to hold above it. Bears want to push back below it to restart liquidation pressure. -
Recovery resistance: $1710 to the low $1700s
This is where early recoveries often stall. If price holds above, it supports a continued repair rally. -
Next major magnet: mid $1700s (the heavy trade zone from the selloff)
This is where selling may reappear because it is a prior high-volume area. Acceptance above it would be a stronger confirmation that the market is transitioning from “bounce” to “reversal.”
What orderFlow Intel adds to Palladium technical analysis, beyond a standard recap
Most recaps will say: “Palladium fell hard and bounced.” That is not enough for decision support.
orderFlow Intel adds the missing layer:
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whether the move down was controlled selling or forced liquidation
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whether buyers were absorbing quietly or absent entirely
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whether the rebound is just short covering or early initiative buying
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whether the market is still trending or has shifted into a base-building auction
That is why it helps traders avoid the two common mistakes:
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buying too early during liquidation because “it looks cheap”
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staying bearish too late after the market has already shifted internally
What’s next for Palladium? Have we got a dip?
Today’s drop into $1677 had the fingerprints of a liquidation-driven low followed by early recovery behavior. The market may still chop, and another test of the lows is always possible after a violent stop hunt. But based on the order flow evidence, $1677 is a credible candidate for the day’s low, and the next sessions will be defined by whether Palladium can hold above $1700 and build acceptance into the mid $1700s
