Looking at the other US data released today in summary:
- US Durable goods orders for Oct -2.2% vs -1.5% est. Prior 0.5% revise from 0.7% (lower)
- Ex transportation 0.2% versus 0.3% expected. Prior 0.6% revised 0.7% (lower)
- nondefense capital ex air October 0.5% versus 0.4% expected. Prior revised lower to 0.9% from 1.1%.
- Ex defense -1.5% versus +0.1% prior
- Click HERE for the full report.
Summary of Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (November 2025)
The Federal Reserve’s released Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization data for November and it shows that industrial production staged a modest recovery in November after a tepid October. While the headline index beat expectations, capacity utilization remains steady
Key Data vs. Expectations & Prior
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Industrial Production (IP):
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November Actual: +0.2%.
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Estimate: +0.1% (Beat).
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October Revised: -0.1% (Originally reported as flat).
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Capacity Utilization:
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November Actual: 76.0%.
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Estimate: 75.9% (Slight Beat).
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October Revised: 75.9%.
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Context: This rate remains 3.5 percentage points below the 1972–2024 average of 79.5%.
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Major Industry Group Breakdown
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Manufacturing: Remained unchanged (0.0%) in November after a -0.4% decline in October.
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Mining: Jumped +1.7% in November, a sharp reversal from the -0.8% contraction in October.
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Utilities: Decreased -0.4% in November after a volatile +2.6% surge in October.
Market Group Performance
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Final Products: Increased +0.4%, led by a recovery in consumer goods (+0.3%) and business equipment (+0.3%).
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Construction: Continued to weaken, falling -0.6% in November following a steep -1.1% drop in October.
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Materials: Rose +0.2% after remaining flat in the prior month.
Capacity Utilization by Stage
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Crude: Rose to 83.7% (from 83.0% in October).
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Primary & Semifinished: Fell slightly to 75.4%.
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Finished: Edged up to 73.7%.
The “Why” Behind the Numbers
While the +0.2% IP growth beat the 0.1% forecast, the broader trend reveals a stagnant manufacturing sector. The “beat” was largely fueled by a rebound in mining rather than a resurgence in factory output. Persistent headwinds, including tariff uncertainty and slowing discretionary consumer spending, continue to keep capacity utilization (76.0%) near levels seen during previous economic soft patches.
The Trump initiatives to bring back manufacturing to the US should lead to larger numbers down the road
