Overview of Canada’s GDP (October 2025)
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Top-Line Growth: Real GDP decreased 0.3% in October, more than offsetting the 0.2% growth seen in September.
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Broad Contraction: 11 out of 20 industrial sectors saw declines.
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Sector Split: Both Goods-producing (-0.7%) and Services-producing (-0.2%) industries contracted during the month.
Manufacturing & Industrial Activity
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Manufacturing Sector: Fell 1.5%, wiping out September’s gains.
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Durable Goods (-2.3%): Dragged down by machinery and wood products.
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Lumber Impact: Wood product manufacturing fell 7.3%, the largest drop since 2020, following new US tariffs on Canadian lumber effective October 14.
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Mining & Energy: Contracted 0.6%.
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Oil & Gas (-1.2%): Lower crude bitumen extraction due to facility maintenance.
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Potash Rebound: Rebounded 4.5% after a shutdown in September, slightly tempering the sector’s decline.
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Labor Disruptions & Public Sector
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Education: Fell 1.8% due to a province-wide teachers’ strike in Alberta (Oct 6–29), causing the largest subsector drop since late 2023.
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Postal Services: Plunged 32.1% as nation-wide strikes by Canada Post workers (CUPW) shifted to rotating actions on October 11.
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Retail Trade: Declined 0.6%, partly affected by a liquor store strike in British Columbia which hit beer, wine, and liquor retailers.
Trade & Construction
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Wholesale Trade: Contracted 0.9%, driven by miscellaneous merchant and machinery wholesalers.
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Construction: Decreased 0.4%, its first decline in six months.
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Residential: Down for the third straight month due to a slowdown in new single-occupancy home construction.
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Non-Residential: Tepid growth of 0.1% was the only bright spot in the sector.
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The Resilience in Finance
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Record Highs: The Finance and Insurance sector rose 0.4%, marking its fifth consecutive monthly increase.
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Market Activity: Growth was driven by increased activity in both equity and debt markets.
Early Look: November 2025
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Advance Estimate: Early data points to a slight recovery with a 0.1% increase in real GDP for November.
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Drivers: Expected growth in education (recovery from strike), construction, and transportation, though mining and manufacturing are expected to remain weak.
October was a “perfect storm” (in a negative way) for the Canadian economy, with GDP contracting 0.3% as a wave of labor unrest and new trade barriers stifled growth. The decline was largely driven by a 1.5% slump in manufacturing, triggered significantly by a 7.3% plunge in wood products following new U.S. lumber tariffs. Domestically, widespread strikes—including Alberta teachers, B.C. liquor distribution workers, and a 32% collapse in postal services due to Canada Post walkouts—paralyzed key service sectors
