In life, no matter what we do, there always comes the inevitable moment of reckoning—a time when performance is measured, and results are tallied. It might be your boss during an annual performance review, your coach analysing your season’s stats, or a professor handing back an exam paper. In our case, it is our clients who get to decide if we delivered or missed the mark. So, now it is our turn to sit in the hot seat.
Although it is a bit nerve-wracking (nobody wants to be wrong in public), it is also oddly satisfying and indeed, somewhat amusing to sit back, dust off the old predictions, line them up against what actually happened, and see if our ‘crystal ball’ was working or not. So, pull up a chair, grab your favourite end-of-year drink, and let’s open the 2025 scorecard together. We’ll go market by market and reveal exactly where we were right, what we got wrong, and how our 2025 outlook actually played out. Please, don’t judge us too harshly!
Octa broker’s 2025 forecasts
Back in December 2024, when we laid out our outlook for 2025, the world felt like it was ‘rife with uncertainties and riddled with challenges’, as we put it. It was a time of extreme uncertainty. Donald Trump had just been elected U.S. President, creating a thick fog of speculation around trade policies, taxes, and regulation. Bitcoin was trading near an all-time high (ATH), fueled by hopes for clearer crypto regulation. Gold was trading sideways amid election jitters and geopolitical tensions. Last but not least, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was riding high, fueled by a resilient economy, hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) vibes, and hopes that trade tariffs would boost the greenback. We offered our best analysis then—now let’s see what the market actually delivered.
The scorecard
We’re pleased to report that we nailed the overarching themes for 2025. Our key predictions proved mostly accurate, guiding traders through a volatile year.
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The Trump effect and trade war risks
Our first major call was that the ‘implications of the U.S. presidential election would play out in full force’ in 2025. We also flagged a ‘full-scale tariff war’ as a ‘major global risk’.
This proved absolutely correct. Trump’s administration rolled out sweeping tariffs starting in April—a universal 10% on all imports, escalating to 20-34% on big deficit partners like China, Mexico, and the European Union (EU). What we flagged as a ‘major global risk’ kicked off exactly the volatility we feared. Global growth forecasts from the OECD and World Bank were slashed by 0.5-1%, with U.S. GDP dipping 0.23% below baseline in 2025 due to trade frictions. Though the global economy showed surprising resilience, the threat—and the reality—of rising trade barriers led to market fragmentation, supply chain adjustments, and an increase in global inflationary pressure. The threat wasn’t just a possibility; it proved to be the central drama of the year.
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The equities and risk-on rally
We correctly anticipated that investors in industrialised countries would ‘avoid cash as interest rates were projected to decline’. This led to our next successful call: ‘investors would likely prefer to invest in risky assets like U.S. stocks and crypto, and equities may still perform well’.
And perform well they did! Despite the trade drama, the boom in Artificial Intelligence (AI) productivity kept the S&P 500 and Nasdaq alive. Furthermore, lower interest rates, combined with the continued commercialisation of AI (which we highlighted as a key driver for tech, energy, and utilities), fuelled a strong ‘risk-on’ environment. Investors treated every dip as a buying opportunity, pushing tech stocks to new ATHs. The strength was particularly concentrated in the large-cap, technology-related stocks benefiting from the AI-driven capital expenditure cycle, a trend we had specifically highlighted. And the ‘data centre build-out’ we mentioned? It effectively put a floor under the energy sector, just as we thought.
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Gold’s all-time high
We were spot-on with our view that gold will remain a ‘major protective asset as geopolitical risks are not going away’. Moreover, we explicitly stated that we ‘expect gold to establish new all-time highs (ATH) in 2025’.
Geopolitical tensions, ranging from the U.S.-China trade war to Middle East unrest, and global monetary policy uncertainty kept demand for the yellow metal sky-high. Indeed, gold performed brilliantly, reaffirming its role as the ultimate safe-haven asset, even beyond most analysts’ expectations. Crucially, the demand from global central banks for gold reserves continued its strong trajectory in 2025, providing a powerful floor to prices—a factor we had correctly identified as supportive.
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Bitcoin’s correction and subsequent rebound
Our outlook on Bitcoin was a cautious but successful one: ‘the risk of a major downward correction in Bitcoin is very high in 2025, but if it does take place, it should be treated as a buying opportunity’.
Just as we suggested, the crypto market saw a significant pullback in the first half of 2025. After the initial post-election optimism faded and regulatory clarity remained elusive for a period, Bitcoin endured a sharp correction. However, true to our forecast, this dip was indeed viewed as a prime buying opportunity. The underlying fundamental optimism—coupled with eventual signs of shifting regulatory tides in the second half of the year—saw Bitcoin prices not only recover but push toward new ATHs later in 2025, exactly following the ‘correction and rebound’ scenario we laid out.
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U.S. dollar’s decline
Finally, we were absolutely right when we said last year that ‘the U.S. dollar seems overvalued… Betting on its continuing rise is risky’.
While many expected trade tariffs to strengthen the dollar, we were sceptical of further gains, and the greenback tumbled. Indeed, the DXY experienced its steepest decline in over five decades in the first half of 2025, plunging by almost 11% due to anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Fed, growing investor concern over U.S. fiscal sustainability and ballooning federal debt and also due to reputational damage and uncertainty stemming from U.S. policy under the Trump administration.
What we missed
While the trends were spot-on, we have to admit one key area where we missed the mark: the scope of the movements. We got the direction right, but the sheer velocity of the market shifts in 2025 caught us—and many others—off guard.
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Gold’s unprecedented rise. We confidently called for gold to set a new ATH and speculated that ‘$3,000 per ounce was not impossible’. Well, we were too conservative. The scale of safe-haven demand, driven by heightened geopolitical anxiety and central bank purchasing, was far beyond our wildest expectations. We didn’t foresee the prolonged U.S. government shutdown in late 2025 acting as rocket fuel, pushing the metal not just past $3,000, but rallying as high as $4,000+ per ounce. We were bullish, but the market was hyper-bullish.
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The dollar’s freefall. We were bearish on the greenback, predicting it was overvalued. But we didn’t expect it to lose as much as 12% in a single year. The speed at which the market repriced U.S. debt sustainability caught even us by surprise.While we advised caution and risk, we underestimated the speed with which concerns over U.S. fiscal policy and tariff risks would unwind the multi-year rally.
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Growth of U.S. benchmark indices. Equities were another scope miss. We warned against broad-based growth and instead advocated for sector-specific focus like AI and energy—solid advice, as tech rose 25%+ and nuclear plays like Constellation Energy (+45% YTD) and Vistra (+51%) crushed it on data centre deals. But the S&P’s 17% total return (including dividends) outpaced our cautious stance, thanks to resilient earnings (up 7.4% forward EPS).
The takeaway
So, what have we learned from the 2025 market cycle?
Our analysis of the major forces—geopolitical risk, the effects of new U.S. policy, the AI-driven tech cycle, the shift in interest rate expectations, and the underlying vulnerability of the U.S. dollar—was robust. However, 2025 was a stark reminder that in an environment ‘rife with uncertainties’, when a trend breaks, it can break hard and fast. As we eye 2026, with tariffs entrenched and Fed easing potentially pausing, volatility will linger—but so will opportunities for those who trade smart, and not scared to conduct a thorough self-review of trading predictions.
Disclaimer: This article does not contain or constitute investment advice or recommendations and does not consider your investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Any actions taken based on this content are at your sole discretion and risk—Octa does not accept any liability for any resulting losses or consequences.
Octa is an international broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 61 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools
