In the European session, the main highlight will be the UK GDP, although we will also get the final inflation readings for Germany, France and Spain. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central banks.
The UK October GDP is expected at +0.1% vs -0.1% prior, while the Y/Y estimate is seen at +1.4% vs +1.1% prior. The data is not going to change anything for the BoE, with the central bank widely expected to cut at the upcoming meeting following soft labour market data and benign inflation figures.
The only thing that could stop the BoE from cutting is notably strong employment and inflation data next week coming out just before the central bank’s decision on Thursday. The market is pricing a 90% probability of a cut at the upcoming meeting and a total of 58 bps of easing by the end of 2026 (one more cut).
In the American session, we don’t have anything on the agenda other than a couple of Fed speakers. As a reminder, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected at the recent meeting and signalled that the bar for further rate cuts would be higher. The central bank left the interest rate projections unchanged but downgraded inflation forecasts and upgraded growth forecasts.
Fed Chair Powell was expected to sound as neutral as possible and stress data-dependency, but he leant on a more dovish side by downplaying the inflation risk and emphasising labour market weakness
