U.S. Jobless Claims Rebound, but Holiday Distortions Cloud the Picture
U.S. initial jobless claims rebounded to 236K, slightly above the 220K expected by economists. The prior week was also revised higher to 192K from 191K, though that earlier reading remains unusually low. It’s important to recall that last week’s sharp drop to 191K was widely viewed as an outlier, heavily influenced by the Thanksgiving holiday, which often disrupts seasonal adjustments and temporarily suppresses claims activity.
Continuing claims provide additional context. Last week’s total was 1.939 million, but the latest report — which also covers the Thanksgiving period — fell to 1.838 million versus 1.947 million expected. On the surface, this would normally signal a stronger labor market, as fewer individuals are remaining on unemployment benefits. However, just like the initial claims figures, these numbers are distorted by holiday effects, making it difficult to draw firm conclusions about the underlying trend.
Taken together, today’s data suggest some rebound from last week’s artificially low readings, but traders and policymakers will need to wait for post-holiday, normalized data to get a clearer picture of true labor-market momentum.
US trade deficit for September -52.8 billion versus -63.3 billion estimate
U.S. trade data for September showed a notable improvement, with the overall trade deficit narrowing to –$52.8 billion, a sharp reduction from –$63.3 billion in August. The goods deficit also tightened meaningfully, coming in at –$77.69 billion compared with –$84.34 billion the prior month
