RBA’s Hauser says policy likely still restrictive, debate underway inside board
Info via Reuters interview:
Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said the central bank’s “best guess” is that monetary policy remains restrictive, but noted there is active debate within the RBA board about that assessment, signalling a live discussion over how much restraint is still weighing on demand.
Speaking in an exclusive interview, Hauser said if it turns out policy is no longer even “mildly restrictive,” it would have “important implications for future policy,” suggesting the case for keeping rates higher for longer could strengthen if financial conditions have eased more than assumed.
He played down the sharp rebound seen in the latest Westpac consumer sentiment survey, calling it “probably an erratic reading,” and said policymakers would wait to see if the improvement persists. Hauser described recent consumption data as mixed — “some ups, some downs” — but said the central case remains for a “gradual, modest recovery” in spending.
On labour markets, Hauser said there are “no levels of unemployment that will make a central bank happy,” underscoring that policymakers remain focused on returning inflation to target without triggering a sharp rise in joblessness.
Hauser also addressed the RBA’s new governance structure, saying unnamed votes are designed to encourage open debate and that public engagement by board members has begun and “will increase over time.”
Asked about financial markets, he said it’s unclear whether the world is in an AI bubble, but added that the RBA’s “central case is not for an imminent market crash.”
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Hauser’s remarks reinforce expectations that the RBA will stay patient on rate cuts, keeping a mildly restrictive stance until clearer signs of durable disinflation and stable growth emerge
