China’s manufacturing sector showed signs of stabilisation in September 2025 as the official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 49.8, beating forecasts of 49.6 and climbing from August’s 49.4. While the reading is still below the crucial 50 mark that distinguishes contraction from growth, it marks the slowest rate of decline in six months and signals cautious optimism that government stimulus and external demand may be supporting industry momentum.
| Indicator | September 2025 | Expected | August 2025 | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official PMI | 49.8 | 49.6 | 49.4 | Slowest contraction in 6 months |
| Production | 51.9 | – | 50.8 | 6-month high |
| New Orders | 49.7 | – | 49.5 | Slight improvement |
| Export Orders | 47.8 | – | – | Highest since March |
| Equipment PMI | 51.9 | – | – | Sector outperformed |
| High-Tech PMI | 51.6 | – | – | Sector outperformed |
China September 2025 PMI Highlights
- Official Manufacturing PMI for September: 49.8 (expected: 49.6, prior: 49.4)
- Production sub-index surged to 51.9, its strongest level since March, indicating manufacturing activity is picking up.
- New orders climbed to 49.7, up marginally from August, while new export orders hit 47.8, a six-month high.
- High-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors led the improvement, both reporting PMI over 51, bucking the overall contraction trend.
- The non-manufacturing PMI slowed to 50.0, reflecting weaker services and construction activity as property sector woes weigh on the broader economy.
Economic Insights and Market Impact
The September PMI rebound suggests Chinese manufacturers are benefiting from targeted policy support and recovering global demand, especially in exports and high-value tech sectors. However, domestic demand remains muted, and companies face ongoing margin pressure due to weak pricing power and fierce competition. Analysts note that continued stimulus measures—including possible rate cuts—may be necessary for a sustained manufacturing recovery.
Investors and traders watch PMI data closely as an indicator of economic health. The improvement in September’s reading could support sentiment for Chinese equities linked to industrial activity, while the persistent sub-50 value means caution remains warranted.
