UBS bumps up gold price forecast to $3,800 by year-end

UBS has raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 to $3,800 per ounce, up from a previous projection of $3,500, and sees gold reaching $3,900 by mid-2026—an increase of $200 from its earlier target. UBS cites prospects for Federal Reserve rate cuts, continued central bank buying, and robust safe-haven demand as the key drivers behind its bullish stance, stating: “We maintain an Attractive view on gold and stay long the metal in our global asset allocation”.^[1][2][3]

UBS Ups Gold Price Forecast for 2025 and 2026

UBS’s upward revision reflects growing conviction that macroeconomic factors—including a weakening U.S. dollar, persistent geopolitical uncertainties, and aggressive reserves diversification by global central banks—will drive gold to new highs. The metal recently traded close to $3,800 per ounce, supported by rising ETF inflows and inflation concerns. This move puts UBS ahead of competitor targets such as Goldman Sachs (who recently raised their December 2026 target to $4,900).^[2][3][4]

Key Data Points

• UBS 2025 Year-End Gold Forecast: $3,800/oz (previous: $3,500)
• UBS Mid-2026 Gold Forecast: $3,900/oz (previous: $3,700)
• Institutional buying and ongoing monetary policy shifts are supporting these targets.^[3][2]
• Portfolio allocation guidance: UBS recommends a mid-single-digit allocation to gold within diversified portfolios.^[3]

Market Drivers

• Weaker Dollar: Gold benefits as the dollar loses ground in global markets.^[3]
• Central Bank Demand: Record gold buying by central banks continues to underpin prices.^[2][3]
• Geopolitical and Inflation Risks: Investors remain keen on gold’s role as a hedge in volatile markets.^[4][2]
• ETF Flows: Renewed growth in gold-backed ETF holdings further supports the bullish outlook.^[3]

Broader Outlook

UBS’s attractive rating for gold remains consistent with its global asset allocation strategies, and the firm continues to recommend long-term exposure for investors seeking portfolio protection and inflation hedging. With consensus forecasts from leading banks clustering around the $3,800–$4,000 range for 2025–2026, gold remains a focal point for safe-haven and diversification strategies.^{[5][1][4][2][3]}

Refrence:

1. https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-haefele-says-gold-prices-091208964.html   
2. https://uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/ubs-raises-gold-silver-price-forecasts-again-4291039       
3. https://www.ecofinagency.com/news-industry/1509-48687-ubs-and-goldman-sachs-lift-gold-forecasts-seeing-path-to-3-800-and-beyond         
4. https://investinghaven.com/forecasts/gold-price-prediction/    
5. https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/gold-price-forecast-2025-ubs-outlook-strategy/  
6. https://www.perplexity.ai/finance 
7. https://www.miningweekly.com/article/ubs-forecasts-gold-price-could-reach-4-200oz-by-mid-2026-2025-09-30 
8. https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealthmanagement/insights/marketnews/article.2622552.html 
9. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/anz-raises-year-end-gold-forecast-3800-per-ounce-2025-10-08/ 
10. https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/this-new-gold-price-prediction-from-goldman-sachs-suggests-precious-metal-can-surge-to-5000/