China’s economic growth is projected to come in just under 5% in the third quarter of 2025, sparking renewed calls for stimulus measures as growth momentum shows signs of weakening heading into year-end. Societe Generale’s Greater China economist Michelle Lam highlighted these risks, noting that the softer GDP figures will likely intensify demands for fresh policy easing to boost growth through the winter.
China Q3 2025 GDP Growth Forecast
- Economic growth in Q3 is expected to slow to slightly below 5%, down from the more robust figures earlier in the year, reflecting moderated industrial activity and subdued consumer sentiment.
- Lam underlined the risk that this slowdown could deepen without targeted stimulus as domestic consumption and manufacturing indicators remain weak, adding pressure on policymakers to act.
- The official PMI data for recent months showed a contraction in manufacturing, while the property sector continues to drag on overall economic recovery.
Calls for More Stimulus
- Analysts expect the People’s Bank of China to implement moderate monetary easing measures such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to inject liquidity and stimulate credit growth.
- Partial policy support will likely focus on consumption and property sectors, aiming to stabilize employment and prevent deeper deflationary pressures.
- The key challenge lies in balancing stimulus with the risk of creating asset bubbles, especially in the already fragile property market.
What This Means for Investors and Markets
- Investors should watch for policy announcements in the coming months, as fresh stimulus could boost market sentiment and consumption trends.
- The near 5% GDP growth target depends on policymakers’ ability to implement timely and effective support measures before year-end.
- Global markets remain sensitive to slowing Chinese growth due to the country’s integral role in trade and supply chains.
Summary Table: China Q3 2025 GDP Growth
| Indicator | Forecast / Data | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 GDP Growth Rate | Just under 5% | Slowing growth momentum |
| H2 2025 GDP Growth Estimate | ~4.5% – 5% | Echoes slower PMI and weak sectors |
| Policy Outlook | Moderate easing | Interest rate and RRR cuts expected |
| Risks | Asset bubbles, deflation | Property sector weakness |
China Q3 GDP seen below 5%, stimulus pressure builds into year-end
