In the European session, the main highlight was the UK employment report. The data came on the softer side with the unemployment rate ticking hihger, although wage growth remains pretty high. Nonetheless, the market firmed up the expectations for two rate cuts by year-end. Looking ahead, there’s not much else other than the final Eurozone CPI data which is not going to matter.
In the American session, the focus will switch to the US Jobless Claims and Retail Sales figures. Initial Claims are expected at 235K vs 227K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1965K vs 1965K prior. Initial Claims pulled back from the cycle highs recently and the data overall continues to point to a “low firing, low hiring” labour market.
The US Retail Sales M/M is expected at 0.1% vs -0.9% prior, while the Ex-Autos M/M measure is seen at 0.3% vs -0.3% prior. The Control Group is expected at 0.3% vs 0.4% prior. I personally don’t like retail sales data because it’s volatile and most of the time it just gives noise rather than signals
