FBS, a leading global broker, shares its expert review of the first half of 2025 in the cryptocurrency market and outlines key scenarios shaping the months ahead.
Bitcoin led the market in H1, showing solid resilience and setting new highs despite global uncertainty. Supported by a more favorable macroeconomic environment with stabilizing inflation, a pause in US rate hikes, and a weaker dollar, BTC once again confirmed its position as the leading force in the crypto market.
Earlier in 2025, Bitcoin briefly fell to $76 300 before making a strong comeback in Q2 and reaching a new all-time high. This recovery reinforced BTC’s dominance, especially among institutional investors, and left many altcoins struggling to catch up.
“Bitcoin has once again proven to be the core asset in the crypto market,” say FBS analysts. “But the real question is whether we’re nearing the end of this bull cycle — or if the market still has room to run.”
Altcoins fall behind
While Bitcoin surged, most altcoins, including ETH, SOL, and XRP, remained under pressure. The long-awaited “altseason” didn’t take off in the first half of the year, as most liquidity remained concentrated in Bitcoin. Weak speculative interest and a lack of strong fundamentals limited altcoin recovery, leaving many assets below their year-to-date performance.
Some, like XRP, showed relative stability due to strong communities and partnerships. But overall, altcoins underperformed, raising doubts about whether they’ll see a meaningful upside before the current cycle peaks.
Macro picture: the key to what comes next
In the second half of 2025, market attention shifts to key macroeconomic signals. According to FBS, three forces will likely shape crypto’s direction:
· The US Federal Reserve: If the Fed starts cutting rates, risk assets could gain new momentum. But if the pause continues or policy shifts back toward tightening, pressure on crypto may return.
· The US Dollar Index (DXY): Bitcoin has historically moved in the opposite direction to the dollar. A stronger DXY could weigh on crypto sentiment.
· Stock market performance: Correlations between major indices and crypto remain strong. Weakness in tech stocks could spill over into digital assets.
Tracking the Post-Halving Market Trajectory
Looking at past market cycles, FBS analysts highlight that bull markets tend to peak 200–500 days after a Bitcoin halving. The last halving occurred in April 2024, putting a potential cycle top around Q4 2025 to Q1 2026. Technical indicators like the Money Flow Index (MFI) also suggest FBS may still be in the active phase of the bull run.
That said, the market now enters a decisive phase. Continued growth may drive renewed capital into altcoins, sparking delayed upside. On the other hand, signs of exhaustion or macro headwinds could mark the start of a longer correction.
“The next few months will define this cycle,” the report concludes. “Whether it’s the beginning of the end or just another phase of growth — traders need to stay alert.”
Disclaimer: This material does not constitute a call to trade, trading advice, or recommendation, and is intended for informational purposes only.
About FBS
FBS (https://fbs.com) is a global brand that unites several independent brokerage companies under the licenses of FSC (Belize), CySEC (Cyprus), and ASIC (Australia). With 16 years of experience and over 100 international awards, FBS is steadily developing as one of the market’s most trusted brokers
