Goldman Sachs expects eight OPEC+ members to raise oil production quotas by 550,000 barrels per day in September, completing the rollback of 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts as the group aims to normalise spare capacity in the face of strong global oil demand.
The forecast follows OPEC+’s decision over the weekend to increase August output by 548,000 bpd, marking a faster pace of supply restoration amid recent price swings linked to Middle East tensions. Goldman says this supports its long-standing view that the group is shifting toward a more stable strategy focused on regaining market share, managing spare capacity, and keeping U.S. shale growth in check.
The bank expects OPEC+ production to rise by 1.67 million bpd between March and September, reaching 33.2 million bpd, with Saudi Arabia responsible for over 60% of the increase. The eight nations involved are Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Algeria.
Goldman held its Brent crude forecast at $59 for Q4 2025 and $56 for 2026, noting mixed factors like underperformance in Russian output and tightening spare capacity. It also sees upside risks to demand, forecasting global oil consumption to grow by 600,000 bpd in 2025 and 1 million bpd in 2026, driven by strong Chinese demand, steady global growth, and a weaker U.S. dollar.
While the bank sees balanced risks for 2025, it warns of downside risks in 2026, including the possible reversal of another 1.65 million bpd in cuts and a 30% chance of a U.S. recession
