S&P 500 Futures Analysis: We May Have a Dip

March 14, 2025 at 05:23AM

Today’s S&P 500 Futures Analysis: Use This as a Decision Support Tool

Bullish Bias with Caution: Prediction Score +6

The S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) are currently trading at 5,569.50, with buyers in control, pushing price above key support levels. orderFlow Intel analysis indicates a bullish bias, but traders should watch for a key resistance test at yesterday’s Value Area High (VAH) of 5,575.50.

With price currently above yesterday’s VWAP (5,556.50) and POC (5,540.00), market sentiment is favoring the upside. However, the reaction at 5,575.50 will be crucial—a breakout could send ES toward 5,583 and beyond, while rejection may lead to a retracement back to VWAP or POC before attempting another breakout.

Key orderFlow Intel Insights for Today’s S&P 500 E-Mini Futures Analysis

Buyers Are Driving Momentum:

The latest order flow analysis shows a +4.06% positive delta in the last bar, signaling strong buy-side aggression.

Even in low-liquidity trading hours, volume and trade count exceed the same time slot from March 13, confirming that this move is driven by real market participation.

5,575.50 (VAH) is the Next Major Test:

Many traders monitor this level, so a breakout could trigger further buying toward 5,583 and possibly 5,609+.

If sellers aggressively absorb buy orders at VAH, expect a pullback toward VWAP (5,556.50) or POC (5,540.00).

What This Means for S&P 500 Traders and Investors Today

Bullish Breakout Scenario (Higher Probability if 5,575.50 Holds Above Support)

A confirmed breakout above 5,575.50 increases the likelihood of price reaching 5,583.

If bullish order flow continues, price could extend to 5,609 – 5,628 in the coming sessions.

A strong delta shift above resistance would reinforce confidence in further upside.

Potential Pullback (If VAH Rejects Price Action)

If price fails to hold above 5,575.50, expect a retracement toward VWAP (5,556.50) or POC (5,540.00).

This does not necessarily turn the market bearish—rather, it could indicate profit-taking before another bullish push.

Bearish Reversal Risk (Only If POC is Lost)

A sharp rejection at 5,575.50 with heavy sell volume absorption could trigger a move downward.

If 5,540 (POC) breaks, the downside opens toward 5,514 (Value Area Low).

As of now, order flow does not support a major selloff, but traders should watch delta shifts carefully.

Final Takeaways for Today’s S&P 500 E-Mini Futures Outlook

The bullish case remains strong, but 5,575.50 (VAH) must be monitored closely.

Above 5,575.50 → Buyers remain in control, potential target: 5,583+

Failure to break VAH → Likely pullback to VWAP (5,556.50) or POC (5,540.00)

Break below POC → Opens the door to 5,514

This orderFlow Intel analysis serves as a decision support tool, not financial advice. Traders should use it to orient their strategy, but ultimately, market reaction at key levels will determine the next move.

For real-time updates and deeper market insights, visit ForexLive.com. Trade responsibly and conduct your own research before making any decisions.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.