The Bank of Canada rate decision up next. What technical levels are in play now?

March 12, 2025 at 01:23PM

The USDCAD is consolidating between the 100-hour (1.43857) and 200-hour (1.44041) moving averages ahead of the Bank of Canada’s rate decision at 9:45 AM. The central bank is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points due to concerns over tariffs and slowing economic growth. The pair is currently trading near 1.4400, with traders awaiting the BoC’s move to break the neutral range and set a directional bias.

From a technical perspective, the moving averages will serve as key indicators:

A break above the 200-hour MA (1.4404) would signal bullish momentum, with upside targets at 1.4448 to 1.4471. A move beyond 1.4471 would be a shift from tariff induced spikes. .

Conversely, a break below the 100-hour MA (1.43857) shifts the bias lower, targeting the 50% retracement level at 1.43454. Further downside would see support at the lower consolidation range between 1.4268 and 1.4278.

The BoC’s decision and forward guidance will determine whether USDCAD breaks higher or lower from this consolidation zone. It’s more traditional vs the tariff-induced price moves of late, but be aware, the tariff scuffle is not fully resolved (April 2 and more tariffs are not far away).

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.