TD warn of more Bank of England rate cuts than the marekt expects – to weigh on GBP

February 24, 2025 at 12:07AM
GBP may face pressure as the Bank of England (BOE) could cut interest rates more aggressively than markets anticipate, according to TD Securities strategists in a note from late last week.

While recent stronger-than-expected UK economic data has led them to push back their forecast for the next BOE rate cut to May instead of March, they still expect a total 125 basis points of cuts this year, including the 25bp reduction in February.

Currently, markets are pricing in around only 50bp of additional cuts for 2024.

Despite this, investor sentiment toward sterling remains upbeat, leaving it vulnerable to a potential downward correction if expectations shift.

Additionally, TD add, uncertainty over potential tariffs from a second Trump presidency could add further pressure on the risk-sensitive pound against the dollar.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.