What happens to the Australian dollar if the RBA doesn’t cut today?

February 18, 2025 at 12:34AM
The Australian dollar could strengthen by up to 1% against the U.S. dollar if the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) leaves interest rates unchanged at 4.35%, according to analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA).

“Our analysis of past decisions suggests AUD/USD could lift by up to 1.0% 30 minutes after the decision if the RBA leaves the cash rate at 4.35%,”

extent of the Australian dollar’s gains will depend on the tone of the RBA’s post-meeting statement and press conference

If the central bank signals that a rate cut is imminent, any rise in the AUD/USD may be limited.

However, if the RBA remains noncommittal about future rate cuts, the currency pair could climb by more than 1%

CBA have a long-standing forecast of a rate cut at this meeting today. Most analysts in the market are now forecasting the same. Pricing for a cut is north of 90%. I would be shocked if we didn’t get a rate cut today.

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The RBA Statement is due at 2.30 pm Sydney time

0330 GMT

2230 US Eastern time

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock press conference follows an hour later.

RBA Poised to Reduce Cash Rate by 25 Basis Points

What technical levels are in play for the AUDUSD through the RBA rate cut in the new day?

Nomura expect a hawkish rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia this week

Reserve Bank of Australia expected to cut its cash rate by 25bp on February 18

Market Outlook for the Week of 17th-21st February

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Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.