December 31, 2024 at 02:53PM
Clyde Russell at Reuters takes a look at a few scenarios for global markets in 2025 and how they will play out. It’s a good time to think through some different ideas, even if you disagree with some of the takes here. Not surprisingly, the list is dominated by the uncertainty of how Trump and Republicans will govern.
Trump Better Than Expected
Trade threats yield concessions
US economy leads global growth
China recovers
Peace deals reached
Bullish: copper
Bearish: oil, gas
Trump Worse Than Feared
Major trade barriers erected
Global economy suffers
Higher inflation
Bearish: copper, iron ore, oil, LNG
Bond markets punish Treasuries
China Recovery
Property/local govt cleanup succeeds
Consumer spending rebounds
New markets for green tech
Bullish: copper, iron ore, LNG, coal
Limited oil impact due to EVs
OPEC+ Fractures
Unity breaks under US production surge
UAE may increase output
$75/bbl support threatened
EV adoption pressures oil outlook
Energy Transition Ex-US
China floods market with cheap green tech
US isolates itself
Global adoption accelerates
Bullish: copper, lithium, minor metals, silver
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.