October 30, 2024 at 03:35AM
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Trade ideas thread – Wednesday, 30 October, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
It
was another subdued session for major FX. Political
machinations in Japan to form the next government continue, and they did so
today against the backdrop of a quiet yen. USD/JPY has barely tracked
a 30 point range.
On
the data agenda were Australian inflation figures:
the
Q3 headline rate came in at 2.8% y/y, below the top of the 2-3% RBA
target band and its lowest since early 2021
the
Q3 core ‘trimmed mean’ y/y came in at a still lofty 3.5%
interestingly,
the y/y for September month came in at 2.1% – the monthly reads are
not the ‘official’ CPI rate, but encouraging nonetheless
The
caveat to the low headline rate is that it benefitted from government
temporary rebates and subsidies (cost of living relief). These will
roll off and headline inflation is likely to pop back up again in the
quarters ahead.
The
data barely moved the needle on RBA rate cut expectations, many
analysts (not all) favour a February 2025 cut while market pricing is
looking to May 2025. AUD/USD didn’t move around much, a slight dip
and rally and since has lost ground to its session low, helped along
by a broader USD bid.
EUR,
NZD, CAD, GBP have all lost a little ground against the USD. There is
little fresh news flow.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
