Time to price in the decline in fertility

August 26, 2024 at 08:54PM
What’s the world’s largest asset class?

It’s real estate. But what are homes worth when there is an empty house on your block with no one to fill it? What if there are 10 empty houses?

John Authers recently wrote about declining fertility trends and pricing them into markets. By now, most people have seen the charts showing the sharp drop in fertility rates since 1960:

There are no shortage of explanations from:

The cost of living

Breakdown in community

Breakdown in religion

Cost of housing

Cost of daycare

Feminism

Delayed careers

Climate change fears

People are selfish

It’s obviously some mix of culture and economics but no seems to have landed on a real solution, so it’s safe to say this won’t be reversed any time soon.

What Authers points out is that the trend is worsening and current projections don’t really extrapolate so there’s a decent chance that we undershoot the baseline scenarios, which are bearish of just about every asset class on earth.

I tend to think that a huge blindspot in markets is this kind of thing, which is forseeable but will catalyze slowly and at an unforseeable time. The instinct is to maintain market multiples but this should contract them.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

For News Subscribe Us!

If you wish to receive the weekly market report, please subscribe. For a daily report please go to contact form to speak to the sales team.

You have been successfully Subscribed! Ops! Something went wrong, please try again.
PikPng.com_apple-icon-png_BBB

register your interest now

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED © 2024 HUBFX
Business Office at 7 Bell Yard, London, WC2A 2JR, United Kingdom

HUBFX Asia  Business Office at
100 Peck Seah St, 079333, Singapore

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED © 2024 HUBFX
Business Office at 7 Bell Yard, London, WC2A 2JR, United Kingdom

HUBFX Asia  Business Office at
100 Peck Seah St, 079333, Singapore

For clients based in the European Economic Area, payment services for HUBFX are provided by CurrencyCloud B.V.. Registered in the Netherlands No. 72186178. Registered Office: Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 296 – 298, Mindspace Nieuwezijds Office 001 Amsterdam. CurrencyCloud B.V. is authorised by the DNB under the Wet op het financieel toezicht to carry out the business of an electronic-money institution (Relation Number: R142701).  For clients based in the United States, payment services for HUBFX are provided by The Currency Cloud Inc. which operates in partnership with Community Federal Savings Bank (CFSB) to facilitate payments in all 50 states in the US. CFSB is registered with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC Certificate# 57129). The Currency Cloud Inc is registered with FinCEN and authorised in 39 states to transmit money (MSB Registration Number: 31000206794359). Registered Office: 104 5th Avenue, 20th Floor, New York , NY 10011. For clients based in the United Kingdom and rest of the world, payment services for HUBFX are provided by The Currency Cloud Limited. Registered in England and Wales No. 06323311. Registered Office: Stewardship Building 1st Floor, 12 Steward Street London E1 6FQ. The Currency Cloud Limited is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Electronic Money Regulations 2011 for the issuing of electronic money (FRN: 900199). Please refer to the Terms of Use here.

Payment services for HUBFX UK and US are provided by The Currency Cloud Limited. Registered in England No. 06323311. Registered Office: Stewardship Building 1st Floor, 12 Steward Street London E1 6FQ. The Currency Cloud Limited is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Electronic Money Regulations 2011 for the issuing of electronic money (FRN: 900199) and The Currency Cloud Inc. which operates in partnership with Community Federal Savings Bank (CFSB) to facilitate payments in all 50 states in the US. CFSB is registered with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC Certificate# 57129). The Currency Cloud Inc is registered with FinCEN and authorized in 39 states to transmit money (MSB Registration Number: 31000160311064). Registered Office: 104 5th Avenue, 20th Floor, New York , NY 10011 

 

Payment services for HUBFX are provided by The Currency Cloud Limited. Registered in England No. 06323311. Registered Office: Stewardship Building 1st Floor, 12 Steward Street London E1 6FQ. The Currency Cloud Limited is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Electronic Money Regulations 2011 for the issuing of electronic money (FRN: 900199) and The Currency Cloud Inc. which operates in partnership with Community Federal Savings Bank (CFSB) to facilitate payments in all 50 states in the US. CFSB is registered with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC Certificate# 57129). The Currency Cloud Inc is registered with FinCEN and authorized in 39 states to transmit money (MSB Registration Number: 31000160311064). Registered Office: 104 5th Avenue, 20th Floor, New York , NY 10011 and CurrencyCloud B.V.. Registered in the Netherlands No. 72186178. Registered Office: Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 296 – 298, Mindspace Nieuwezijds Office 001 Amsterdam. CurrencyCloud B.V. is authorised by the DNB under the Wet op het financieel toezicht to carry out the business of a electronic-money institution (Relation Number: R142701)

Rates are indicative only. Please log in for getting your rates.