August 23, 2024 at 12:53AM
Seeking Alpha (gated) with the info from a note from UBS on oil, expects Brent to recover into an $85-90/ bbl range over the coming months.
The note is a good summary of the mix of factors at play.
On demand and the recent slide in price:
recession fears in the US, ongoing ceasefire hopes in Gaza have
lowered crude’s risk premium
weak Chinese crude imports and refinery activity in July sparked
fears of poor Chinese oil demand
On supply:
US crude production growth is slowing down
declining US drilling activity doesn’t suggest an acceleration in supply growth in
the near term
OPEC+
is likely to stick to its cautious approach when adding back supply
Oil update:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.