Micro 10-Year Yield Futures Technical Analysis with tradeCompass (August 6, 2025)
The tradeCompass snapshot
Current Price: 4.216%
Bullish above: 4.230
Bearish below: 4.224
Primary Bias: Bearish (at the time of analysis)
10-Year Yield Partial Profit Targets:
For Bears (if and when bearish threshold is activated):
-
4.207 – just above yesterday’s Value Area Low
-
4.194 – logical support below minor liquidity zone
-
4.187 – continuation target if pressure sustains
-
4.164 – just above key level from April 30
For Bulls (if and when bullish threshold is activated):
-
4.233 – first resistance area above bullish trigger
-
4.240 – just under August 4 VAH
-
4.251 – below August 1 key resistance
-
4.260 – intermediate target for breakouts
-
4.277 – just below August 1 Value Area High
Less important than the above but yield traders should also keep in mind these ranges:
10-Year Yield Day’s Range
The intraday low is 4.213 and the high is 4.228.
10-Year Yield Day’s Range 52-Week Range
The lowest price over the past 52 weeks is 3.595, and the highest is 4.809.
10-Year Yield Market Context & Directional Bias
The Micro 10-Year Yield Futures (symbol: 10Y) are trading at 4.216% at the time of this analysis, slightly up on the day but still locked in a short-term downtrend. The market has fallen 8.89% over the past 51 sessions since the May 22 pivot high and declined 6.11% over the last 15 sessions, suggesting sustained bearish momentum.
According to today’s tradeCompass thresholds, the bearish bias is active below 4.224, which price is currently beneath. Unless the market recovers and sustains above 4.230, the directional pressure remains to the downside.
Key Levels & Partial-Profit Strategy for 10-Year Yield Traders
Bearish Trade Plan (Active Below 4.224):
Traders following the bearish path can consider these intraday targets:
-
4.207 – Just above the Value Area Low (VAL) from yesterday. A logical spot for early profit-taking or scalp exits.
-
4.194 – A structurally important mid-range target with moderate liquidity exposure.
-
4.187 – Deeper support level, may catch resting buyers.
-
4.164 – Sits just above a critical April 30 key level. If reached, it would likely complete today’s bear mission.
Bullish Trade Plan (Only if 4.230 Is Crossed & Held):
Should buyers reclaim control:
-
4.233 – Initial upside checkpoint, marking early breakout momentum.
-
4.240 – Just under the August 4 Value Area High, a likely stall zone.
-
4.251 – Approaches significant resistance tied to August 1, where order flow may shift again.
-
4.260 – Intermediate breakout target if strength sustains.
-
4.277 – Just below August 1 VAH, and a potential end-of-day exhaustion level.
Educational Insight: Why Yield-Based Futures Matter
Unlike traditional bond futures (like ZN), Micro 10-Year Yield Futures (10Y) allow traders to speculate directly on yield movements, not bond prices. This distinction matters:
-
Yields reflect expectations for inflation, interest rates, and Fed policy — crucial for macro traders.
-
The 10Y yield is a benchmark for mortgage rates, equities, and credit markets — influencing broader asset allocations.
-
Trading yield futures enables hedging and directional trades tied to the most-watched U.S. bond yield.
Each basis point move (0.01%) is worth $10 per contract, and the smallest tick size (0.005%) equals $5, making it accessible for smaller accounts with precision control.
tradeCompass Trade Management Reminders
-
One trade per direction per tradeCompass: Stick to either bullish or bearish based on threshold breaks.
-
Adjust stops after partial targets: Once second profit is taken, consider moving stop to breakeven.
-
Avoid chasing: Wait for price to activate the compass direction (above 4.230 for bulls, below 4.224 for bears).
-
Use logical stop-loss placement: Never place stops beyond the opposing threshold.
Last but not least, tradeCompass meets yield trading today!
This is a milestone day as tradeCompass begins coverage of Micro 10-Year Yield Futures, offering traders precision tools and structured guidance on a product closely tied to macroeconomics and interest rate expectations. This opens up new opportunities for those tracking U.S. Treasuries, inflation, and central bank policy.
This analysis is for informational purposes only. It is not financial advice
