November 05, 2024 at 07:11AM
But regardless of the closing time of the polls, different states will have different procedures in counting votes and that could see the results spill over to the next one or two days (or more). But as outlined here, the main focus will be on the key battleground states i.e. swing states once again. So, that is the key focal point for markets as well.
This is a good cheat sheet in getting a rough idea on when these key states will report their results (h/t @ BBC):
Just remember that this is just a rough guide and estimation of the timings. For some context, it took nearly four days after voting day for the 2020 presidential race to be called. And a lot of that hinged on how Pennsylvania was going to play out especially at the time. So, there are scenarios where it may take longer than 24 to 48 hours for the race to be called.
That especially since Harris and Trump are believed to be neck and neck, with some swing states holding more significance than others for each candidate as also outlined in the linked post above.
North Carolina will be a key litmus test for Trump’s credentials but the Rust Belt states i.e. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are going to be massively crucial as that is likely to be the simplest victory path for Harris.
In all likelihood, it is possible that we have to wait until at least late Wednesday before getting a better idea of how these states will line up for Harris or Trump.
But if it turns out to be more one-sided than anticipated, we could get an early call on the election result similar to 2016. That saw Trump declared as the winner around 0800 GMT the day after voting.
In any case, markets will already start moving as the early votes slowly trickle in. So, keep that in mind as volatility and sentiment swings will be quite frequent as the headlines flow all through election day itself.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
