March 05, 2025 at 02:36PM
The USDCHF fell back below its 100-day moving average (0.8922) yesterday, breaking through a key swing area between 0.8914 and 0.8922—a clear bearish technical development. This marked the first break below the 100-day MA since November 2024, signaling a potential shift in momentum. The decline extended further, reaching and briefly breaking through the 38.2% retracement of the September 2024 rally at 0.88843, but downside momentum failed to sustain, leading to more choppy price action.
Sellers have remained in control, using the 100-day MA and swing area as resistance, reinforcing the bearish outlook. While a new low was established near 0.8855, the next major downside target is the 200-day moving average at 0.88217. A decisive break below this level would solidify the bearish bias and force buyers to step aside.
For now, price action remains volatile, with buyers attempting to stabilize the pair above recent lows while sellers continue to lean against resistance levels. If the 100-day MA holds as a ceiling, the path of least resistance remains to the downside. However, a move back above 0.8922 could shift sentiment and force short-covering. Until then, traders will closely monitor price reactions at key technical levels to gauge the next move.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
