December 11, 2024 at 11:05PM
Summarising the findings.
Concerns About Trump Presidency:
Nearly 75% of Japanese companies expect Donald Trump’s next term as U.S. president to negatively impact the business environment.
Key concerns include planned tariff hikes and heightened U.S.-China trade tensions.
Impact of Tariff Hikes:
Trump has threatened tariffs exceeding 60% on Chinese imports, with initial tariffs projected to range from 15% to 60%.
Additional threats include a 25% levy on goods from Canada and Mexico, where many Japanese automakers operate factories.
Two-thirds of firms indicate no planned changes to business strategy, while 22% would cut costs and 8% would expand in other markets.
Earnings Outlook:
Half of Japanese companies expect higher earnings in the next fiscal year.
About 20% anticipate a decline, while the remainder foresee stable earnings.
Improved profits are attributed to rate hikes, stronger freight rates, and a tourism boom.
Yen and Exchange Rate Expectations:
Approximately 60% of firms predict the dollar will trade between 140 yen and 150 yen in 2025.
Bank of Japan Leadership:
Over half of respondents expressed confidence in BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s ability to normalize monetary policy after ending negative interest rates in March.
The BOJ raised its short-term policy target to 0.25% in July, with expectations of another rate hike soon.
Survey Details:
Conducted by Nikkei Research for Reuters between Nov. 27 and Dec. 6.
Survey included 505 companies, with 236 responses provided anonymously.
***
The BoJ meet next week, on hold?
USD/JPY sent for a spin but now moving higher as BOJ rate hike odds fade
USD/JPY sent for a spin but now moving higher as BOJ rate hike odds fade
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.