US jobs numbers due Friday – Non-farm payrolls preview

June 06, 2024 at 10:51PM
Employment data from the US has shown a resilient labour market, freeing traders up to focus on inflation data. The resilience is expected to continue in today’s data:

The data is due at 230 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time.

Snippet via Bank of America:

The May employment report is
likely to show a healthy but better-balanced labor market.

Nonfarm
payrolls likely rose by 200k, a 25k increase from April.

Strong
hiring is likely to result in the unemployment rate edging down a
tenth to 3.8%. and wage growth would likely remain at 3.9% yoy.

In
short, the report should signal strong labor demand and little
concern of an economic slowdown, in our view.

More broadly:

We think strong employment growth in laggard industries can persist this year, albeit to a lesser extent.

We expect payrolls to increase by around 170k per month in 2024.

Job growth should then slow to an average of 100k in 2025.

We also expect the participation rate to be rangebound at 62.6-62_7% across our forecast horizon. As a result. we only see a small and gradual increase in the unemployment rate, with a peak of 4.1% in 4Q 2025

HUBFX

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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