US CPI data due Wednesday the ranges of estimates to know

June 12, 2024 at 03:43AM
Later today, Wednesday, 12 June 2024, we get the US consumer inflation data.

for May 2024

due at 1230 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time

This snapshot is from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. It shows the consensus estimate and the April (prior) result:

The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

For expectations from major investment banks, check this out:

Goldman Sachs forecasts US May Headline CPI @ 3.4% y/y, core 3.5%

Taking a look at the range of expectations compared to the median consensus (the ‘expected’ in the screenshot above) for the key data points:

March CPI Headline y/y range of expectations is showing:

3.4% – 3.6%

CPI Headline m/m range showing:

HUBFX

0.1 to 0.2%

CPI excluding food and energy (the core rate of inflation) y/y range showing:

3.4 – 3.4% ( yes, all 3.4)

CPI excluding food and energy m/m range showing:

0.1 to 0.3%

***

Why is knowledge of such ranges important?

Data results that fall outside of market low and high expectations tend to move markets more significantly for several reasons:

Surprise Factor: Markets often price in expectations based on forecasts and previous trends. When data significantly deviates from these expectations, it creates a surprise effect. This can lead to rapid revaluation of assets as investors and traders reassess their positions based on the new information.

Psychological Impact: Investors and traders are influenced by psychological factors. Extreme data points can evoke strong emotional reactions, leading to overreactions in the market. This can amplify market movements, especially in the short term.

Risk Reassessment: Unexpected data can lead to a reassessment of risk. If data significantly underperforms or outperforms expectations, it can change the perceived risk of certain investments. For instance, better-than-expected economic data may reduce the perceived risk of investing in equities, leading to a market rally.

Triggering of Automated Trading: In today’s markets, a significant portion of trading is done by algorithms. These automated systems often have pre-set conditions or thresholds that, when triggered by unexpected data, can lead to large-scale buying or selling.

Impact on Monetary and Fiscal Policies: Data that is significantly off from expectations can influence the policies of central banks and governments. For example, in the case of the inflation data due today, weaker than expected will fuel speculation of nearer and larger Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cuts. A stronger (i.e. higher) CPI report will diminish such expectations.

Liquidity and Market Depth: In some cases, extreme data points can affect market liquidity. If the data is unexpected enough, it might lead to a temporary imbalance in buyers and sellers, causing larger market moves until a new equilibrium is found.

Chain Reactions and Correlations: Financial markets are interconnected. A significant move in one market or asset class due to unexpected data can lead to correlated moves in other markets, amplifying the overall market impact.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

For News Subscribe Us!

If you wish to receive the weekly market report, please subscribe. For a daily report please go to contact form to speak to the sales team.

You have been successfully Subscribed! Ops! Something went wrong, please try again.
PikPng.com_apple-icon-png_BBB

register your interest now

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED © 2024 HUBFX
Business Office at 7 Bell Yard, London, WC2A 2JR, United Kingdom

HUBFX Asia  Business Office at
100 Peck Seah St, 079333, Singapore

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED © 2024 HUBFX
Business Office at 7 Bell Yard, London, WC2A 2JR, United Kingdom

HUBFX Asia  Business Office at
100 Peck Seah St, 079333, Singapore

UKDEA24-Finalist-Badge2
GBT24_Finalist_Full-White

For clients based in the European Economic Area, payment services for HUBFX are provided by CurrencyCloud B.V.. Registered in the Netherlands No. 72186178. Registered Office: Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 296 – 298, Mindspace Nieuwezijds Office 001 Amsterdam. CurrencyCloud B.V. is authorised by the DNB under the Wet op het financieel toezicht to carry out the business of an electronic-money institution (Relation Number: R142701).  For clients based in the United States, payment services for HUBFX are provided by The Currency Cloud Inc. which operates in partnership with Community Federal Savings Bank (CFSB) to facilitate payments in all 50 states in the US. CFSB is registered with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC Certificate# 57129). The Currency Cloud Inc is registered with FinCEN and authorised in 39 states to transmit money (MSB Registration Number: 31000206794359). Registered Office: 104 5th Avenue, 20th Floor, New York , NY 10011. For clients based in the United Kingdom and rest of the world, payment services for HUBFX are provided by The Currency Cloud Limited. Registered in England and Wales No. 06323311. Registered Office: Stewardship Building 1st Floor, 12 Steward Street London E1 6FQ. The Currency Cloud Limited is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Electronic Money Regulations 2011 for the issuing of electronic money (FRN: 900199).

Payment services for HUBFX UK and US are provided by The Currency Cloud Limited. Registered in England No. 06323311. Registered Office: Stewardship Building 1st Floor, 12 Steward Street London E1 6FQ. The Currency Cloud Limited is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Electronic Money Regulations 2011 for the issuing of electronic money (FRN: 900199) and The Currency Cloud Inc. which operates in partnership with Community Federal Savings Bank (CFSB) to facilitate payments in all 50 states in the US. CFSB is registered with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC Certificate# 57129). The Currency Cloud Inc is registered with FinCEN and authorized in 39 states to transmit money (MSB Registration Number: 31000160311064). Registered Office: 104 5th Avenue, 20th Floor, New York , NY 10011 

 

Payment services for HUBFX are provided by The Currency Cloud Limited. Registered in England No. 06323311. Registered Office: Stewardship Building 1st Floor, 12 Steward Street London E1 6FQ. The Currency Cloud Limited is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Electronic Money Regulations 2011 for the issuing of electronic money (FRN: 900199) and The Currency Cloud Inc. which operates in partnership with Community Federal Savings Bank (CFSB) to facilitate payments in all 50 states in the US. CFSB is registered with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC Certificate# 57129). The Currency Cloud Inc is registered with FinCEN and authorized in 39 states to transmit money (MSB Registration Number: 31000160311064). Registered Office: 104 5th Avenue, 20th Floor, New York , NY 10011 and CurrencyCloud B.V.. Registered in the Netherlands No. 72186178. Registered Office: Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 296 – 298, Mindspace Nieuwezijds Office 001 Amsterdam. CurrencyCloud B.V. is authorised by the DNB under the Wet op het financieel toezicht to carry out the business of a electronic-money institution (Relation Number: R142701)

Rates are indicative only. Please log in for getting your rates.