In other news, The shortlist for Fed Chair has reportedly been narrowed down to Bowman, Waller, Hassett, Warsh, and Rieder, according to CNBC sources. While an individual could be nominated to the Federal Reserve by January, this does not necessarily mean they would be selected as Chair. Interviews are expected to take place in the coming weeks and months. Following that, Treasury Secretary Bessent intends to provide a smaller list of candidates to Trump, who will make the final decision.
One of the shortlisted candidates just spoke on CNBC. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said his interview for the Fed chair position went very well, emphasizing that it focused entirely on economics rather than politics. He noted uncertainty about whether he is a finalist but highlighted that recent data all point to a weakening labor market, with ADP figures consistent with BLS trends toward negative job growth. Waller added that CPI data will be key for upcoming decisions and argued that tariff-driven inflation is a one-time effect that should not alter monetary policy. He stressed the Fed needs to cut rates but must do so cautiously, signaling a gradual approach through quarter-point moves rather than aggressive steps, while also making clear that the labor market is no longer tight.
ECB policymaker Primoz Dolenc, Slovenia’s acting central bank governor, said monetary policy is “in a good place”, noting that current interest rates are sufficient to keep inflation stable at target. Other ECB policymakers echoed a balanced tone: Martins Kazaks argued that the 2% rate is appropriate, signaling confidence in the current stance, while Jose Luis Escriva stressed that inflation remains contained, suggesting little urgency for further tightening. Collectively, their remarks point to a steady ECB policy outlook with no immediate changes expected.
In Japan, Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito declared that his party cannot agree with the LDP on money and politics issues, criticizing what he called the LDP’s inadequate response. He expressed regret and signaled an intention to leave the coalition under new LDP leader Sanae Takaichi, making clear Komeito will not support her premiership in parliament. Saito framed this as a reset of the LDP–Komeito partnership, recalling the strained relationship of 2009. With Komeito’s influence diminishing in recent elections, Saito had previously warned the party would not stay aligned if the LDP shifted too far from its moderate conservative stance—a shift embodied by Takaichi.
On the global stage, Venezuela’s opposition leader María Corina Machado was awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, a decision seen as a setback for Donald Trump, who has long argued he deserves recognition for his efforts to mend global relations. The Nobel Committee highlighted that its choice was guided by “courage and integrity” in line with Alfred Nobel’s vision of rewarding meaningful work. The award underscores Machado’s role in advancing freedom. In response, White House spokesperson Steven Cheung said on X that “President Trump will continue making peace deals around the world, ending wars, and saving lives”, while adding that the Nobel Committee had shown it “places politics over peace.” The decision raises questions about how Trump, known as “not a good loser,” might seek to respond or retaliate.
Employment data will be released at 8:30 AM ET with a expected gain of 5.0 versus -65.5K. The unemployment rate is expected at 7.2% versus 7.1%.
The US stocks are trading higher after corrective declines in the broader indices yesterday.
- Dow industrial average is up 69 points
- S&P index is up 65 points
- NASDAQ index is up 38 points
Looking at the US yield curve, yields are trading lower across the curve:
- 2-year yield 3.572%, -2.7 basis points.
- 5 year yield 3.699% -4.1 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.097%, -5.0 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.680%, -5.3 basis points
Crude oil is trading down $0.88 at $60.61.
Silver is up $0.90 and back above $50 and $50.10. Gold is also rebounding. It is currently up $18.50 or 0.46% but is back below the $4000 level at $3993.31
