The USD is lower vs all the major currency pairs to start the US session. The biggest move is vs the AUD and USD where risk on flow have helped to push those currency pairs up around 1%. The gains came despite tensions with US/China. China vowed to “resolutely take countermeasures” after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods. Beijing warned it would “fight until the end” if Washington presses ahead, further intensifying fears of a global trade war. The gains also came as tariff shock has started to bite into the data. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index fell 6% in April, its sharpest drop in nearly two years, retreating from a three-year high. Households cited growing concern over the economic outlook and personal finances. It’s a soft data point but nevertheless could be a precursor to lower real economic data.
In the video above, I take a look at the 3 major currecny pairs, the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective. What is driving the technicals and why? I answer those questions in the video so take a look and be prepared for your trading.
In other news overnight,
- Federal Reserve official Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed growing concern that escalating tariffs could reignite inflation and disrupt supply chains, echoing conditions last seen during the 2021–22 inflation surge. While hard economic data remains resilient, Goolsbee said rising uncertainty is clouding the outlook.
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he does not expect any trade deals to be finalized by April 9, meaning retaliatory tariffs will likely go into effect. In a CNBC interview, Bessent emphasized that the current round of tariff negotiations is being driven by a surge of inbound calls rather than market movements. He noted that on the issue of Europe’s VAT, “everything is on the table,” and confirmed that President Trump will be personally involved in the negotiation process. Bessent described tariffs as a “melting ice cube,” implying they are meant to be temporary if successful agreements are reached. Discussions have already taken place about which countries to prioritize, and Bessent expressed optimism that strong proposals could lead to solid trade deals. However, he added that some tariffs may remain in place as part of the negotiation calculus. He criticized China’s escalation of tensions as a “big mistake,” and clarified that he was not involved in calculating the specific tariff numbers. Bessent concluded by reaffirming Trump’s commitment to addressing trade imbalances.
What is now will be different later, so buckle up and understand the risk and bias defining levels in your trading.
Looking at the US stocks, they are sharply higher:
- Dow industrial average is up 1120 points after falling -249 points yesterday
- S&P is up 136 points after falling -11.83 points yesterday
- Nasdaq is up 440 points after rising 15.48 points yesterday
In the US debt market, yields are higher:
- 2 year yield 3.793%, up 5.6 basis points
- 5 year yield 3.910%, up 6.9 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.221%, up 6.5 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.643%, up 4.9 basis points
In other markets:
- Crude oil is up $0.41 or 0.69% at $61.13
- Gold is trading up $30 or 1.0% at $3011.03
The USD is lower vs the major currencies to start the day. What are the technicals saying?
