NZD traders – Westpac forecasts the RBNZ to cut by 25bps in October and November 2024

August 4, 2024
-FCHFX

August 04, 2024 at 09:41PM
Forecast for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand from Westpac in New Zealand.

Westpac revises RBNZ rate cut forecast, now sees October and November easing

Westpac now expects RBNZ to cut OCR by 25bps to 5.25% in October

Further 25bps cut expected in November, bringing OCR to 5% by year-end

Bank cites weaker growth outlook and rising unemployment as key factors

GDP projected to fall 0.6% in Q2 2024

Unemployment rate now seen peaking at 5.6% in 2025

Inflation expected to return to 1-3% target range in Q3 2024

OCR forecast to reach 4.5% by May 2025, bottoming at 3.75% in early 2026

Westpac’s chief economist Kelly Eckhold notes the RBNZ is likely to take a “measured and data dependent approach” to easing. The bank doesn’t see RBNZ “panicking” despite softer economic data, as domestic inflation remains a concern.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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