August 21, 2024 at 03:32PM
Economists widely estimated that US non-farm payrolls would be revised lower from the prior numbers showing 2.9 million jobs added in the year ending in March, or 242,000 per month. Goldman Sachs had floated a range of 600K-1M job losses.
This would put the monthly average at 174K, a decline of 68K jobs per month.
One critical caveat is that these revisions are based on a reconciliation with initial jobless claims, which don’t include illegal immigrants. Given the surge in border crossings, the non-farm payrolls numbers may be a better measure of actual job creation, because they aim to capture all hiring, including illegal immigrants.
This release was a mess as it was out more than 30 minutes later than expected and there were all kinds of rumours, including this one which was out way ahead of time.
I detailed the rumours and reports here.
In any case, the percentage revision to employment is 0.5%. The bulk of the losses were in professional and business services.
Professional and business services sector sees whopping 358K cut
Leisure and hospitality down 150K, manufacturing loses 115K
Some silver linings: Health/education adds 87K, transportation up 56.4K
Government employment essentially unchanged (+1K)
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
