Morgan Stanley brings forward BOE rate cut forecast to December

November 7, 2025
-FXnews

Ahead of the meeting yesterday, Morgan Stanley noted that:

“Our base case is for the next move in February, although the risks of a cut in
4Q are high – not just due to how close the debate and the vote split on the MPC might be
next week, but also given our forecasts for weak growth and a rising unemployment rate
into the December meeting. In addition, we see fiscal risks as receding – there might not be
much need to wait until February to digest a straightforwardly contractionary Budget.”

So, it’s just a minor shift forward in the timeline as they see the balance of risks calling for a quicker pace of rate cuts – at least when compared to their earlier projection

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