September 16, 2024 at 10:32AM
It would take a significant shift in the outlook for the ECB to cut in October
Very little new information in the pipeline before October meeting
There is no rush to cut rates
The safest approach is to wait for the outlook to become clearer
All this is very much a given now and they have guided markets relatively well in that regard. But at least economic developments are also playing out accordingly, so that helps with expectations. Traders are pricing in just ~39 bps of rate cuts for the last two meetings this year and not looking for a change in October as well; ~75% odds of no change to rates.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
ECB’s Kažimír: Will almost surely wait until December for next rate cut
