August 30, 2024 at 05:54PM
Global equity semi-permabear David Rosenberg is out with a new commentary and he’s wading into the foreign exchange market with a strong case to sell USD/JPY.
He said it “could be the most glaring price anomaly on the planet” and it carries the headline “Want to make a 30% return with little risk? Here’s a rare opportunity to do so.”
Those are the kinds of statements that have humbled many men in markets but the former Merrill Lynch analyst isn’t afraid to stir the pot. You can read it here but some highlights:
JPY hit 3-decade low in July at 161, now at 146- but story far from over
BoJ policy shift: Rate hikes just getting started, bucking global trend
Japan’s economic outlook upgraded for first time in 15 months
Weak yen boosting inflation: Import prices up 10.8% YoY
Mean reversion target: 113 yen per dollar (20% upside)
Big Mac Index shows yen 44% undervalued
Says to split the difference on a 30% return trade: Long JPY via money markets, no equity/duration risk
Key drivers: BoJ tightening vs Fed easing, unwinding of yen carry trades
“What has caused the slide in the yen has been the financial repression
engineered by the BoJ, but that phase has now come to an end — first via
forex intervention and second by rate hikes that are far from over.”
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
