How have interest rates expectations changed after the NFP report?

September 8, 2025
-FXnews

Both were softer than expected although the Canadian one was worse.

The market quickly priced in a third cut for the Fed by year-end (70 bps) and a second rate cut for the BoC (42 bps). Moreover, given some expectations of the Fed being potentially late, the market started to price in also some chances of a 50 bps cut in September. Much like the insurance cut we got in 2024.

That might depend on the US CPI report on Thursday though. Soft data could give the Fed more conviction to start with a 50 bps cut and then see how things evolve in the next months

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