After trading within a well-defined red-box range (between 0.8758 and 0.8850) through much of March (see chart above), USDCHF sellers took firm control last week, pushing the price sharply lower and breaking decisively below the consolidation zone. That breakout marked a shift in sentiment, with downside momentum accelerating.
After bottoming at 0.8450 yesterday as US yields pushed lower in pre-US open hours, a corrective rebound saw the price run higher but stalled yesterday near the falling 100-hour moving average (blue line). That level has now established itself as a short-term barometer for the pair. The rejection from that moving average reinforced bearish pressure, keeping sellers in control.
On the 4-hour chart, USDCHF is currently testing a key swing area between 0.85309 and 0.8557. The price has just slipped below the lower boundary of this zone, signaling that sellers are making a play for downside momentum. For bearish traders, 0.8557 now stands as close resistance—a level that needs to hold to keep the bearish bias intact. As long as the pair stays below it, the market remains open to probing the lower extremes of the August–September 2024 range, where price action was volatile between 0.8400 and 0.8557 (see the red box on the chart below).
So in summary, sellers leaned against the falling 100 hour MA (currently at 0.86157). That MA will need to be broken on the topside ultimately if the buyers are to take more control.
The price is also testing a key swing area between 0.85309 and 0.8557. In the short term, if the price can stay below 0.8557, the sellers can probe the downside more
